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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (6499)	10/21/2001 12:19:01 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Hawkmoon; Re China and fright. I think you're reading this wrong, and that there *are no significant issues between the U.S. and China. The only one that comes up is Taiwan, but that is only an issue if China pushes it. And right now it's hard to imagine conditions that would cause China to push it. They have way, way, way too much to lose, much more than the U.S. does. Sure they'd love to have more power (who wouldn't), but it has become very obvious that being friends with backwards Moslem dictatorships doesn't provide China with any power at all. What's in it for them? We're less dependent on Middle East oil than they are. Sure they'd like to sell arms overseas, but their arms suck compared to ours. Ah what the heck, just take a look at the numbers: Total military sales, by country, 1999, (millions): U.S.: $18,600 Russia: $ 7,700 France: $ 4,100 Germany: $ 1,100 Britain: $ 600 China: $ 400* <-- very small!!! Italy: $ 100 oneworld.org Total U.S. / China trade, 1999, per U.S. Gov. figures, (millions): U.S. to China: $13,117 China to U.S.: $81,785 <-- very large!!! census.gov From the above it is clear that Chinese military exports to the world are only 0.5% of Chinese exports to the United States. With the U.S. severely pissed off, there is no way that China is going to piss us off. The Chinese leadership has more to fear from their own population (who want jobs, and that requires exports) than they have to fear from any external power. The basic fact (in this I agree with Fukuyama) is that even military power now derives from economic power, and it's impossible to get that economic power without free trade with the economic powerhouses. In that sense, the United States has the cards. What's better, our giving up those cards has the effect of pacifying our enemies. Given that economic power is the font and source of military power, here's the numbers for the baddest asses out there: Total GDP 2000 (billions) U.S.: $ 9,882 Japan: $ 4,677 Germany: $ 1,870 Britain: $ 1,413 France: $ 1,286 China: $ 1,079 Italy: $ 1,068 worldbank.org -- Carl