To: ahhaha who wrote (3254 ) 10/22/2001 4:20:33 PM From: ahhaha Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24758 Just when you thought he was ok...Greenspan Says Price Target Wouldn't Help Fed Policy By Michael McKee Choosing a specific inflation target for the Federal Reserve to meet wouldn't help the central bank set interest rates, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said. Yes, they couldn't do it. Some analysts, including Fed Governor Laurence Meyer, have advocated inflation targeting as a way to restrain inflation expectations and promote open decision-making at the Fed. Greenspan said that wouldn't work, because it is becoming ever more difficult to measure inflation in an age of rapid improvement in medical care, software, and other products that depend on innovations in technology. It wouldn't work, but not for that reason. It wouldn't work because you can't target anything except money supply, and you can't target inflation because it's a result of other factors. AG is obfuscating here. ``A specific numerical inflation target would represent an unhelpful and false precision,'' Greenspan told a monetary policy conference sponsored by the St. Louis Fed Bank. The Fed chairman didn't discuss current U.S. economic conditions or Fed interest-rate policy in his remarks. In a July 17 speech, Meyer, whose term on the Board of Governors expires Jan. 31, called for a 2 percent inflation target. That would help frame monetary policy discussions among Fed officials, and help investors anticipate when interest rates would be changed. That would help hold down market interest rates, Meyer said in his speech. No. It would just lock in 2% as the base rate. Why not lock in 0%? Because it isn't possible with interest rate targeting. No one there understands this. Greenspan disagreed, offering his own, long-held view that ``price stability is best thought of as an environment in which inflation is so low and stable over time that it does not materially enter in the decisions of households and firms.'' How is that any different than Meyer's objective? Besides, there can't be an inflation that remains constant at some arbitrary rate. Sooner or later it accelerates because the effect of interest rate targeting raises the inflation rate from whatever is its apparent constancy. `Complex' Economy Because the economy is so ``complex and changeable'' the Fed can only influence it in ``nominal,'' or non-inflation adjusted terms, he said. Therefore, the central bank can say explicitly that it wants ``price stability'' and ``maximum sustainable growth'' in general terms, but it can't pin down what either number is or should be at a particular time. There you have it. An explicit admission that they can't do what they pretend to do, for when does what they did become wrong? A policy ``rule,'' which would allow Fed officials to plug in economic variables and know what to do with interest rates, would be helpful, Greenspan said. This statement dooms long term prosperity for as long as he is Chairman. ``I hope that someday we can find a reasonable mechanical rule or a reasonably mechanical way in which we can conduct policy. I haven't found it yet,'' he said. Another explicit admission that he doesn't understand that FED interference by setting interest rates is all the problem. No mechanical rule is needed nor can it exist, because its existence refutes its intent, so he hopes for an absurd contradiction in terms. The problem is, no one has yet devised a rule that doesn't depend on opinion in its application, he said. But above he was hoping for a mechanical rule. That's a rule above opinion. In a way he's saying the FED can't operate on principle because they have to be expedient. Otherwise, in their view if they operated on principle the world would devolve because there was no civilization before 1913.``Like anything else it involves a forecast, and forecasts are just that, they are projections into the unknown,'' he said. ...everyone is shouting "Which side are you on!" and ezra pound and ts.elliot fighting in the captain's tower while calypso singers laugh at them and fishermen throw flowers... ``Regrettably, what we do at the moment is essentially the least-worst way of going about it.'' The bust will be blamed on you, bud.