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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Timetobuy who wrote (61953)	10/22/2001 5:03:13 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

This is the longest I have EVER gone without upgrading. That should worry you guys. I typically changed my systems every year! It's been over two now and it will be 2-3 more years. That should tell you that the technology got so good in the last few years that the cycle has been lengthened considerably. The same thing happened in the auto industry. I agree with you to a degree. Although I did upgrade to Windows 98, I could have easily stuck with Windows95 for my own purposes. Many (consumer/business) are still operating with W95. The bigger the base on old operating systems, the greater the potential for a big PC replacement cycle. That is what I see. That is also what Michael Dell has been saying for a while. Major business replacement cycle starting sometime early next year. That is why some of the boxmakers are probably good buys as well as are the semis directly involved in the PC business. ...and of course MSFT too. I still see that MSFT has not warned and won't this quarter either..it will be another surprise compared to estimates. When I see data on how weak Q3 PC sales are, I get more bullish on the industry. I don't believe we had any real interuption in PC demand on Windows ME launch although there was a pause in some markets on W98 (from what I recall). In addition, upgrades to Office XP would also get a boost from XP as noted by MSFT in one of their cc or interviews this summer. jmho