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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stan_hughes who wrote (46386)	10/25/2001 10:23:55 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

stan - gvt. refi: ROFL. As foreign investor now own in excess of 40% in US bonds this is the obvious way to work.<vbg> As for the GATA and the silver story, I only agree with one of their arguments. Huge derivatives positions ideed influence the market of the underlaying metal. Just that, IMHO, these guys do not differenciate between the cause and the effect. Huge paper positions indeed command the market price of the underlaying. IMHO, it is false to assume that the price of the underlaying is manipulated down in order to cover losses (are there losses) in the derivatives. Rests that low interest rates and a strong Dollar is a weak fundation to build a recovery on. Rets that the classical paradox of low interest commading highergold prices does not works. So, can we expect to go back to "normal"? Maybe, maybe not, but I wouldn't expect this to happen overnight. Deflation or not? In a deflation, all prices go down: tangbles, intangibles,... also the CPI (as all prices should be down). We mostly see all the elements in place, except the CPI. Veery hard times to make one's strategic decision. <g> As for the outcome? My current bias is: 1929 only was a correction: we haven't seen anything yet. Gvt. intervention will delay the outcome, and could even delay that outcome for yet another 10 years. The greater the delay, the worse the correction. Or a ten years long sideways market (whichwould be down inflation adjusted). What to do, what to do?