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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (60230)	10/25/2001 3:22:05 PM
From: andreas_wonisch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Wanna_bmw, Re: I predict that AMD will be back to under 20% market share [in Q4]. Feel free to bookmark this prediction, if you want. You bet I will. ;-) More seriously: Judging from the indications in the enthusiasts market, the Athlon XP has been very well received. For e.g. on preistrend.de (a popular German price comparison website for hardware) the most searched product is the Athlon XP 1800+, followed by the 1.4 GHz Athlon. On geizhals.at (Austrian price comparison site) the situation is similar. And you can buy Athlon XP systems from major OEMs in three different German supermarket chains. My guess based on these somewhat edgy data points is that AMD will probably have flat or slightly higher unit shipments in Q4 with substantially higher (i.e. at least $10) ASPs. I think we will know better after next month's analyst conference. If Jerry "only" reiterates guidance, it might be a good idea to sell AMD. (in Q4 of '99 he made his famous "We might break even this quarter" comments at the conference; last year he reiterated guidance and had to issue a warning some weeks later). Andreas

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (60230)	10/25/2001 3:58:10 PM
From: dale_laroy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

>I wonder what will happen in Q4, after having stuffed the channels in Q3, and after having risen their ASPs. I predict that AMD will be back to under 20% market share.< AMD's market share will not fall below 20% until Northwood ships in volume. How can you rationally believe that AMD's Q3 channel stuffing will come back to haunt them in Q4 when Intel flat out states there will be shortages in Q4? Would Intel lie to us?