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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TGPTNDR who wrote (60269)	10/25/2001 4:40:14 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

TGPTNDR, Re: In the Q3CC Paul Otellini said "We are planning ... to more than double our Pentium 4 production in order to meet all customer demand within the quarter. As a result we expect to meet our original 2001 goal for Pentium 4 unit shipments." Let's assume they can do this. In this case, my numbers are optimistic. Intel said 20 million Pentium 4 CPUs in 2001. When the economy went south, they said that the number may have been too aggressive, but with Breakaway, I guess it's possible once again (I thought they may actually break past this number). Arbitrarily, the numbers could go something like this. 750K in Q1 1.5M in Q2 (2x Q1) 6M in Q3 (4x Q2) 12M in Q4 (2x Q3) For a total of just about 20M CPUs. The math works out, but the reality may be very different. Who knows? The only thing I can guess is that Intel ships about 2/3 or more of their total production as desktop processors, and one third of those is value Celerons. Given 27M CPUs per quarter, that means about 12M can be Pentium 4 if Pentium III is all phased out (of the desktop). Wonderful how that at least somewhat agrees with me. wanna_bmw