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To: AK2004 who wrote (60337)	10/26/2001 2:15:27 AM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Albert: I saw that in your post. I think he has made at least two glaring mistakes. The first is assuming such a low number of Celeron sales. P3 > P4 in Q3 and P4 was 46% then Celerons were less the 7% of sales or at most 1.89 million in Q3. That, even the most biased retail observer would not claim. Second, for P4 to have 46% of even the much smaller number of total P3s and P4s sold in Q3, an even slightly sloped line would have P4 crossing P3 sales somewhere in September, if not August. Even Intel claims that it happened in early Q4. Thus, 46% of total P3s and P4s is much more likely to be 46% as of September 30 and much less before that (to quadruple Q2 P4 sales). Taking the high side of Q2 estimates or 1.5 million units or about 10% of the total assuming totally flat (Celerons probably make up 40% to 50% of unit sales) P3 and P4 unit sales, and using a straight line leaves and average of 28% or only 2.8 times Q2. To get Q2 being 25% of Q3 unit sales and assuming a straight line during Q3 would require Q2 to be no more than 7% assuming a flat Q2 or from 5% to 9% straight line Q2 with 9% to 46% Q3 or an average of 27.5% Q3 about 4 times the 7% of Q2. Given a unit sales of 27 million in Q3, that means that 3.7 million sold in Q3 best case (27 * 0.5 * 0.275) and 0.9 million in Q2 (with the fact that this moved up in a somewhat more curved fashion the averages are smaller for both Q2 and Q3) assuming 50% unit market share for Celerons. Assuming 40% Celeron unit market share, 4.6 million Q3 and 1.1 million Q2. They are no where near 32 million for all of 2001. To even get to 20 million in 2001 (Intel's goal in a speech last year IIRC), they would need to sell 13.5 million in Q4 with 40% Celerons and 14.8 million with 50% Celerons. Not likely with a shortage during half of that time. Pete