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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: marynell who wrote (325)10/25/2001 9:45:14 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 39344
 
<worth $200 million or more>

If I had that kind of money I certainly would, but I don't think it would need even a fourth of that. Even a small investor in the grand scheme of things can hold a major stake in some of these names. I was able to buy about a 4% stake in NGT for only about US$72K.

My model would be to form a mid tier "portfolio" exploration company with about $35- $50 million in starting capital, and take controlling activist equity positions of 10-20% in each junior stake, and really try to influence things, get on boards, do key financings, participate as JVs, and drive the exit strategy. Personally I can see a few names that need to be raided right now, even on an unfriendly basis it's gotten so bad (how about GEO or even TVX). Classic venture capital oversight model: find or create a pool of geological talent, give them some seed money and independence, but drive the effort towards doing deals with the operators. In fact, give a little to the buyer deal wise, to make them think of the portfolio company as the honest "wholesaler" (of the highest integrity) that they wish to do business with. Completely different model than the prevailing one, but capital is so scarce, one could be set up fairly quickly with the current crop of juniors. Anybody have that kind of money ($10 million could do a lot), give me a jingle.



To: marynell who wrote (325)10/26/2001 8:23:21 AM
From: Claude Cormier  Respond to of 39344
 
<If I was a Japanese billionaire, I would spend the next two months shopping in Vancouver. >

There is one doing it right now on behalf on all Japanese would-be gold investors, the president of Jipangu.



To: marynell who wrote (325)10/26/2001 9:48:12 AM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 39344
 
The following is my junior list, stocks I either track or hold. Arguably this list is a good representation of much of the best prospective ground in the world. There are certainly others, but I show it to illustrate just how distorted this junior market has become. These companies better start defending their share prices or one of us might just take out a home equity loan <G>.

The numbers given are generally through the second quarter. Trackers will have to update their own names as these outfits are continually raising small amounts of cash via PPs and option exercises. I use undiluted shares unless the stock trades in the money (rare anymore). Best source is usually Sedar:http://www.sedar.com/

The 39 companies (I have omitted GAB and FGX as a separate class)here have a combined market capitalization (MC) of only US$345 million as of last night's close. They have net working capital (WC) on hand of about US$100 million as a group. Actual enterprise value (EV) therefore is only $245 million. Therefore, if someone could get $50 million invested (no easy task short of direct funding) at these prices, he or she would have a controlling interest stake in the whole list. Probably worth 1/4 billion just on tax loss carry forwards alone. By comparison the following "mid tier" producers have MC of:
Glamis $228 M, Meridian $727 M, GG $930 M (Companies like these should be aggressively using their stock as currency for swaps!!)

WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE!! GREATEST POSITIVE ARBITRAGE PLAY IN THE WORLD!!

US$ MC WC EV
Anatolia 10 3/4 1 = 9 3/4
Annoraq 7 2 = 5
Birim 3 ? = ?* awaiting ASL royalty payment
Coral 2 1/2 1/2 = 2
Corner Bay 16 4 = 12
Corriente 10 1/2 3 = 7 1/2
Cumberland 14 3 1/2 = 10 1/2
El Dorado 17 1/2 neg 16 = 33 1/2
Freewest 7 1/2 2 = 5 1/2
Great Basin 15 7 = 8
Geomaque 3 1/2 neg 4 = 7 1/2
Gold Reserve 18 1/2 17 1/2 = 1
Golden Goliath 7 1 1/2 = 5 1/2
IMA Exp. 4 3/4 1 = 3 3/4
Kensington 13 1 = 12
Inca Pacific 3 1/2 1 = 2 1/2
Minefinders 17 1/4 1 = 16 1/4
Madison 2 1/4 1 1/2 = 3/4
Moydow 6 3/4 2 = 4 3/4
Metallica 23 2 1/2 = 20 1/2
Mineras Andes 3/4 0 = 3/4
National Gold 1 3/4 1/2 = 1 1/4
Nevada Pacific 2 1/4 = 1 3/4
Nevsun 4 3/4 1/2 = 3 3/4
Orezone 1 1/4 1/2 = 3/4
Pacific NW Cap 5 3/4 1 1/2 = 4 1/4
Playfair 1 3/4 3/4 = 1
Rockwell 4 1/4 1/2 = 3 3/4
Rubicon 4 1/4 1/2 = 3 3/4
Solitario 7 1/2 5 1/2 = 2
Southwestern 28 18 = 10
Starfield 12 1/2 = 11 1/2
Sultan 8 1/4 1 = 7 1/4
Tan Range 11 1/4 3 1/2 = 7 3/4
Tenke 8 1/4 3/4 = 7 1/2
Virginia 9 1/2 7 1/4 = 2 1/4
Wheaton River 24 15 = 9
Xcal 4 1/4 1/2 = 3 3/4

** Goes without saying, double check data before investing