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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Beachside Bill who wrote (34026)	10/27/2001 10:40:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53068

I think we are at yet another interesting juncture in the market earnings season is about over new warnings will not begin for another 4-6 weeks expectations have been lowered to the point where 80% are now "beating" although it is funny to say beat with a lower loss than expected the FOMC is done or close the meeting minutes prior to 911 showed the members were at the point of no more rate reductions I might envision one last .25 but that will be it funds have completed their year end manipulations so it will be external, read "war" events that will rule for the next few weeks at least looking at a lot of charts the is a common pattern a large number of stocks mirror the NASD chart (use a 3 month nasd chart for reference) significant gains off the Sept low the nasd is 29% above that low and 6% above 9/11 so many charts look like a "top base" (is there is such a thing) nasd resistance looks to me at 1790-1840 and support at 1670-1630 all things considered there could be a small gain from here with 5-10% downside yesterday quite a few charts left a "top tail" so sans an outside event many may roll over as some profit taking comes in it is still very much a trading market but I do think one wants to have at least 25-50% of funds invested in 10-20 TOP QUALITY names for a 2 year plus hold while I am balanced short term I am now a longer term cautious bull right now I am: trading account - 120% short (10 positions) hold account - 48% long, 52% cash son's account - 100% long funds (30 year+ holds); 36% short selected equities (8 positions) (on margin) to balance I still think that if you are not doing at least a few shorts you are leaving potential on the table