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To: AllansAlias who wrote (18262)	10/27/2001 1:44:32 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Allan, since you have the historical data. . . The large guys being short implies upside. However, the commercials are still quite net short, at least on the S+P. Admittedly, they've been getting a little less net short, but have far from switched to long. This would still imply downside, yes? Back in the Spring of 2000, the commercials were short vs the large folks long, correct? What has happened when the two are in sync? Or is it more important to look at directional change rather than total numbers? Are the Large players EVER right? Or is it simply inconclusive here with a slightly bullish POV for the short term? (And yeah, I know. . . a lot has happened since last Tuesday that mighta scared the Large shorts out of their shorts and whatnot. But we don't know that fer sure, so that's just adding speculation on top of subjectivity.) Yes, this is far more interesting than work <g> the freep

To: AllansAlias who wrote (18262)	11/3/2001 11:49:22 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

COT Update Against the US market this week the changes were: NET GROUP POSITION CHANGE Commercials -54,105 + 449 Large - 5,983 +3,607 Small +60,088 -4,056 The Commercials stayed the same. As you can see, the swing was in the Large and Small, but the opposite of last week -- this time the Large got far less short, buying from the Small. Another reminder that these last 5 weeks is the first time the Large group has been short since going long in the Spring of 2000. They aren't usually right. Recall that my data is based on virtual S&P contracts by combining the various index futures (DJ, SP+ES, ND+NQ, MD, RL). (See the message I am replying to for last week's update.)