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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: axp who wrote (17176)	10/28/2001 8:29:15 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Respond to of 18928

Hi A, Thanks for your feedback. I guess it will take measuring how many shares were purchased by each technique to know who will be the potential winner. If one method works to accumulate more shares before an eventual up-turn, it will be the "winner" in the next rally. It probably also has the lowest cost/share during the accumulation phase. If one method accumulated 500 more shares and another accumulated 550, that's still a 10% improvement. Since having such a strategy in place is really only for defense in protracted bear markets it won't come into play very often. It would be hard to measure success during any of the minor corrections of the 1982-2000 boom and wouldn't really have come into play in the deeper ones. This is because most didn't last very long. I did a quick test starting at a 50% cash position and the three buying modes first proposed. It kept the cash available for much longer than weekly or bi-weekly buying and accumulated more shares. The idea was to delay the use of the cash as long as possible to gain the greatest purchasing leverage in a declining market. The idea wasn't to keep it from using all the cash, however. That will be a function of how far the price declines. AIM's pretty efficient at selling, this was an attempt to make it a better purchasing agent. Thanks for taking the time to study it a bit. I'll run a few simulations and see if what I have in mind starts to work, then post the results. Please feel free to do the same and to try for some different ratios. I think it's important to make an improvement here over straight periodic trades. Best regards, Tom