Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (131671)	10/29/2001 4:24:28 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I don't see "the bottom" coming for quite a while, perhaps late next year or early 2003, provided we don't have a major oil shock or ongoing terrorist nastiness in the meantime. DOW 6500-7000, SPX 800, and COMP 1000 at the very least are necessary. If we get inflation and rising short and long term bond rates before then, those numbers could go much, much lower, and the bottom could be much, much further off. Just thought I would repeat what you said for emphasis, because it is exactly what I expect. As I have said several times, what I don't have in bonds (non-dollar) or energy, I have in puts on the Dow and the QQQs that run until the end of 2003.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (131671)	10/29/2001 5:11:03 PM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

while your downside targets may be dead on, i think we also have at least 10 years of sideways action after that point. when looking at mean growth on all major indices from a monthly perspective, we are at historical highs with regards to the 50 and 200 month moving averages. that takes years and years to work off. i've said it before, mean growth is mean growth...it doesn't just go away. we are well over two standards of deviation above the mean. to rolatzi: there is no new paradigm. it's mathematical...regression to the mean, it ALWAYS happens.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (131671)	10/29/2001 7:18:49 PM
From: sammaster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

if we crash going into the end of the year, next year could actually be an overall up year as there is some improvement in the rate of deterioration of growth and as all the stimulus kicks in.... of course then after this bounce the inflation created by this stimulus kicks in and we again go into a down wave of the market..... im just scared about being heavily short early next year if we crash into december as reality sinks in and tax loss selling ensues... i think we may be sawtoothing down like japan with a considerable bear market rally next summer as year over year comparisons improve.... for now i continue to be short and considering going long if we crash into december... you have to think like a dying bull in order to make money in this market <g>