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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome who wrote (173)	10/30/2001 10:28:36 PM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Interesting Chart. site31703.dellhost.com Stan

To: Jerome who wrote (173)	10/30/2001 11:02:06 PM
From: StanX Long	Respond to of 25522

You posted analysts in recent days that LRCX will have a tough time as a stand alone Lam has very few different family types. An example is AMAT, a specific Product Family would be a Grand Parent is “Etch”, and then within the Etch clan there are Poly, Metal and Oxide, three boys or sister. From there each of the siblings already have children. So an Oxide family member could have 10 to 15 children. Some over 15 years old, (many of AMAT’s very old system are still in production), 10, 7, 3 years olds are systems that are the POR (Part Of Record) in production all across the world. Now the 1 – 2 year olds are the 300mm and copper systems. And some of the female siblings are also pregnant (ideas in the hopper / drawing table “computer”). So now of the Family call Etch, let say just one of the first sibling Oxide, Then 10 years old, some 100 systems in the field 7 years old, some 250 systems in the field 3 year olds, some 500 – 700 systems 1-2 year olds, maybe 45 systems. So of Oxide Etch, you could have 35 – 50 customers worldwide using some 1100 systems, easily 3000 chambers. So now in the Etch Family, Metal, Poly, Oxide could have 5000 – 7000 chambers in production. Now Lam also has a family like etch and a few others. But AMAT has over 12 different families; each could have 5000-7000 children in each clan. Now, what is very important is, “these twelve clans represents almost every front end system required”. Take this into consideration when I say, “all of AMAT Clans can easily work together and are complimentary”. Where, Lam need to insure their few clans they produce can work within themselves as well as with every other SEMI EQ vendors”. So now lets say a vendor making a robot or interface-handling unit. You have limited engineering resource, most of your customers has 65 % of their SEMI EQ comes from AMAT, the remaining 35% is shared but LRCZ, NVLS, ASML and on and on. So the smaller vendor making the handler and have one design that addresses 65% of their final customers, while it may require 10 different designs to interface their product with the remaining 35% of the market. As the smaller vendor making handlers, where would you put your engineering labor? On one design targeting 65% of the market or 10 designs to target 35% of the market. This is true for every place where the wafer leaves one tool and goes to the other. It may only be software but work is required. BWDIK Stan

To: Jerome who wrote (173)	10/31/2001 7:32:46 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 25522

Hi Jerome, Lots of speculation that your LRCX will become NVLS. Lots of speculation that Amat will buy Schlumberger's test division,which does Intel's microprocessors. Consequently if Amat did that Cohu would become a candidate so the backend business model would match Advantest's in Japan.Their also is a good case to be made that A could be a competitor in bidding.Ter is a possibility ,but with a lower desire to branch out in a cyclical business they're trying to diversify out of. Maybe Klic and Cohu for a total backend Company. I thought Brooks and Pria was brilliant - where does Asyt go now?? Bob