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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Timetobuy who wrote (62352)	10/31/2001 8:54:18 AM
From: i-node	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

ATM's still involve cash No, my call was that we'd go cashless ... that the ATM would open the door to cards equivalent to today's debit card that would eliminate the need for cash altogether. It was a reasonable prediction -- after all, why do we need cash at all? But the timeframe was clearly that generated by the mind of a 23 year old who didn't comprehend the difficulty with which 50-year-olds adopt major changes in their lives (now that I'm a 50 year old, I understand this more fully<g>). My feeling is that some day the majority of people will use it, the same as ATM's. It will be second nature. I don't know how long that takes. I'm surprised it's not more widely used now. When Java first made its appearance there were wild predictions of wristwatches that could cook your dinner from afar, etc. But I think we've come to understand it takes longer for user interfaces to become popular. I recently wrote some software that used a fairly novel interface to scheduling medical appointments. To me, it made perfect sense and worked great. But I had a really difficult time getting users to adopt it, because it looked foreign to them. After they are using it for a month, they love it and wouldn't consider the older "appointment book" style of scheduler. The point: People Hate Change. But after they reacclimate to something new, they damned sure don't want to change back!

To: Timetobuy who wrote (62352)	10/31/2001 12:04:15 PM
From: brian z	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 74651

From Briefing.com... XP Not The Answer PCs hit their first sequential declines in worldwide sales in 2001. And strong growth isn't coming back anytime soon. Some have hoped that Windows XP, the new Microsoft operating system, will revitalize the entire PC sector. That won't happen, either. There are three basic problems with Windows XP. Most PCs are already good enough for what they do: client/server and desktop functionality. Windows XP tries to force standards on the industry. Proprietary attempts to do this have always failed in the IT sector. Windows XP is expensive. The "per-server" automated fee-on-install system and the forced two-year maintenance program is distasteful to many enterprises. The XP business model has the effect of turning a capital expenditure into an operating expense and enterprises hate that. What Microsoft really needs is an assault on the enterprise level computing systems. Despite their wide spread success, Microsoft has not been able to penetrate the core systems of the biggest enterprises in America. Insurance companies, banks, factories, industrial plants, and other deeply entrenched business still run on antiquated mainframe systems, networked to PC desktops and client/server systems. Windows XP won't conquer the enterprise. At least, not now. In today's economic environment, preservation of cash is the watchword at most companies. Completely revamping existing enterprise IT systems won't do it. As for the desktop, PC upgrades used to be automatic, because it came with improved Word, Excel, and email functionality. But, face it, Word and Excel have reached the point of diminishing returns. It isn't worth upgrading the entire department anymore. They tools are good enough. Most managers just want their workers to make good use of the tools they already have. Bill Gates has been promoting Windows XP by saying things like, "Do know how great it will be for Grandma to see videos of her grandkids on a Windows XP system?" The irony of this is that Bill is now making the same mistake that most beginning entrepreneurs make: thinking that product features make sales. The truth is that market demand makes sales, and market demand generally accepts whatever features come closest to meeting the demand. Features rarely create demand. Is there really any latent demand by grandmothers to see pictures of the kids on a PC? There might be a couple of grandmothers out there, but there certainly aren't enough consumers demanding whiz-cool features to feed the $25 billion annual expenses of the Microsoft Corporation. The final conclusion? Don't count on Windows XP to revive the tech sector.