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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TGPTNDR who wrote (61911)	11/2/2001 7:32:53 PM
From: AK2004	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

TGPTNDR we'll see, at the rate intel dropping prices it is hard for anyone to make money Regards -Albert

To: TGPTNDR who wrote (61911)	11/3/2001 4:32:09 AM
From: peter_luc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

tgptndr, "I think there's a pretty good chance for Q4 unless they have manufacturing problems in the next two months." I have a bet running with wanna_bmw that AMD will indeed break-even this quarter. I have also made a call for an easy double (20$+) for AMD after the Q4 CC. I think it depends upon the number of sales. According to their CC, AMD is shooting for at least 8 million CPUs this quarter. Given the substantially higher ASP for the Athlon XP a break-even seems well possible with >8mill. sales. On the other hand, I saw during the last days that CPU sales at K&M Elektronik decreased very substantially. No single CPU in the general top 10 bestseller list any more. For months, the Athlon 1400 has most of the time been number 1 or 2 on the general bestseller list. Quite often, AMD had 2 or 3 CPUs on the general top 10 list. Now that the Athlon 1400 is finished it seems to be gone. I have to say that the bestseller lists of KME proved to be a pretty good indicator of the DIY market as a whole. I saw the strong growth of AMD in Q1. In Q2, in April and May, I saw a sharp drop in CPU sales and a strong rebound in June. Unfortunately, I didn't pay attention to it. Had I known how good an indicator it was I had sold my shares in Q2 and warned the thread members (and saved a lot of money!). Unfortunately again, I thought that it would be childish to go on with the daily quoting of the bestseller lists. This was an error. I also saw a strong July, a weak August and again a very strong September. But in October, the bestseller lists indicate a dramatic decline in CPU sales. THIS TIME I want to inform the thread members about what I am seeing. There are two reasons why I still hold my AMD shared and why I still believe that a break-even and an "easy double" of the share price is possible: 1) There may be a substantial increase in OEM sales this quarter (as evidenced by the big food chain promotions). 2) The DIY market is probably waiting for the wave of good KT266A and nForce boards. Who would be going to build a computer with an AMD 760 chipset right now? All the computer enthusiasts know that you have to go with the KT266A or the nForce chipset. So, if the KT266A and the nForce boards will arrive soon and in sufficient quantity there is a good chance that the DIY market will rebound quickly. This quarter, AMD is clearly shooting for volume AND high ASPs at the same time. People have been used to ultra-cheap prices for AMD CPUs. We have to wait and see if the market accepts the higher prices. If it does, I should win my bet with wanna_bmw. If AMD will have to cut prices in half again to stimulate sales, I'll lose (not only my bet but also a lot of money). For what it is worth: In the next weeks, I am going to quote again the bestseller lists of K&M Elektronik in a more regular manner. Peter