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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RON BL who wrote (199416)	11/3/2001 12:14:48 AM
From: Mr. Whist	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 769670

Bush's party likely to lose big three polls Matthew Engel Friday November 2, 2001 The Guardian American politics can be mystifying, even to its practitioners. The Democrats appear to be on the canvas, unable to move, never mind land a political punch, owing to the mood of patriotic unity and the popularity of President George Bush. Yet in next Tuesday's elections the Democrats are expected to win the three major contests, every one of which would be a gain from the Republicans. These are the off-off year elections, sandwiched between the 2000 presidential vote and the mid-term poll in 2002, when the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate and most state governorships will be at stake. This vote is confined almost entirely to local elections plus governors' races in Virginia and New Jersey. However, those local jobs on offer include the biggest of all: the mayoralty of New York, which is expected to pass from Rudolph Giuliani to the Democrat Mark Green. New York is a heavily Democratic city, which Mr Giuliani snatched on his record as a crimebuster, and neighbouring New Jersey is a heavily Democratic state where the Republicans have an uphill fight to replace governor Christie Whitman with the mayor of Jersey City. Virginia, in contrast, is overwhelmingly Republican, with one-party control of both houses of the state legislature. This is now the problem: the Republicans failed to agree on a budget this year, which meant no pay rises for state staff. Their party is seen as tired and fractious, while the Democratic candidate, Mark Warner, is well-funded and has juggled urban and rural concerns. If they happen, will these triumphs matter? The Democrats think so. "This sets us up perfectly for the '02 races," their national chairman, Terry McAuliffe, enthused. Less biased observers think these votes are too individualistic to have wider meaning. What they could prove is that when patriotic considerations are irrelevant, voters can still separate the leader from his party, which would be good news for the Democrats.