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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (9484)	11/3/2001 9:00:35 PM
From: techanalyst1	Respond to of 57684

How high will the market go though? If you look back at previous market times we've had rapid rises and falls in the market, only do we get a rapid "V" recovery in 1998. In 1929, we obviously had economic problems and got no stimulus and the market clearly suffered for it. In 1987, we had some stimulus, but not as much as now. Interest rates were much higher than now and the market stabilized, but spent a year in pretty much a trading range (not bouncing at the bottom though) with some stocks actually going lower while a select few did well. Most sat around range bound. At that time, we had a better economy (not going into a recession for another few years) and still didn't have a REAL bull market, but not a bear either.... just a trading range.... a period of digestion and consolidation. Post 1998, we got interest rate cuts and added liquidity, a recovering economy (an overheated economy, actually fueled by increasing debt and flush with ipo cash). In the spring of this year, we had lowering rates, hope for a recovery in the second half of this year, repeated calls that the semis had bottomed and yet they only remained in a trading range. Given that the market remained range bound post 1987 for a year give or take some after THE bottom (with an economy not in trouble and lower valuations) and no current clear RECOVERY let alone increasing earnings in sight, the only thing that makes me think MAYBE that we WON'T be range bound is the stimulus we're getting which could fuel demand, the unattractiveness of cash (hasn't helped Japan), and seasonality. Does it mean that demand WILL return like we had in 1998, creating a "V" shaped recovery in the market? I kind of doubt it. Even though the market looks great now, it doesn't mean we'll keep going. We looked great in the spring too. Markets bottom before the recession ends (and usually when the government finally admits we're in one) and bull markets don't start when times are good, but when times are bad. An end to the current bear? Probably. But that doesn't mean it morphs into a bull without some time in between to digest and consolidate. Anything wrong with a nice trading range while we mend the market and economy? It would be healthier than just rising again. TA

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (9484)	11/3/2001 9:09:04 PM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

How can you explain juniper going down from 27+ to under 20 and cien dropping from 22 to 15? How can we explain a RISE in that sector in the face of qwest? Hmmmmm...... anticipation of csco earnings and additional FOMC stimulus? TA

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (9484)	11/3/2001 10:31:13 PM
From: Mark Fowler	Respond to of 57684

I don't Know Bill call it technical oversold bounce if want. It just doesn't add up to nothing yet. Anyway i'm thankful of the good bounce and i'm glad i book profits too. I'm tired of this market and its Bullshit i don't think i'm coming back into it until the leadership in this country changes so maybe in 2004...we'll see?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (9484)	11/5/2001 2:13:19 PM
From: fedhead	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57684

Yup the market is ignoring horrific news. 2 of the best years of the Dow were in 1932 and 1935 when the economic news was horrendous. The only difference was that in 1932 valuations in relation to historic valuations were a lot lower. That is not the case now but the fact that the market is ignoring horrendous news is good. Lets see how long that lasts though. Anindo