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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Will Lyons who wrote (2930)	11/3/2001 11:11:52 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 99280

By the way, Will, I know that you follow TRKN, so just to mention here, I sold it at a minimal profit. Not that I think that amongst the semi-equip, it is right now one of the better priced one, but I fear that it may be forced down due to a general decline in the sox, and I am still looking at getting back into it for a longer stretch later in December. As for the "best way" to fight the current down turn, I think that what they are trying to do with the combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus will eventually work sometime next year. However, the excessive monetary stimulus will eventually be taken back, and by that time, we may be facing a deeper recession, with the consumer no loner able to refinance his home (whose vale may by then even be lower than his debt on the home, if the deflationary forces spread into the real estate market (I read that in the northeast we are already experiencing some price deflation in RE). I don't see under any "normal" circumstances a recession going into a depression (which I would define as a contraction in excess of 10% in GDP, but you may have a different interpretation). I don't think that the proposal to retroactively refund "excess" taxes due to the last 1 years AMT will cause companies to invest that newfound money back into productive assets. A lot of the larger corporations have sufficient cash and strong enough balance sheets to borrow, if indeed they had "good investment" opportunities. I fear that when I start discussing taxation, I may be running into "politics", so I might as well stop here (g). Zeev

To: Will Lyons who wrote (2930)	11/4/2001 12:55:05 AM
From: thecalculator	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

However Will, if business can garner future profits as a result of infrastructure expansion, then they may have the foresight and wish to invest in that infrastructure expansion, rather than relying upon the Government to take care of it. Now that Microsoft is being allowed to control the Internet again (<g>...facetious grin...i think<g>), it may behoove Microsoft to invest in net infrastructure (for instance, last-mile-to-the-home fiber projects, or high-bandwidth wireless projects), rather than waiting on the Government to do so.