Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (10234)	11/4/2001 7:56:03 PM
From: Peter van Steennis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

K.B. How do you think the home builders, as an industry, will hold up? I am still short RYL, LEN, TOL & BZH. Seems to me that sometime during this fourth quarter new home sales should fall drastically. TlA Peter

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (10234)	11/4/2001 10:57:52 PM
From: aerosappy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Homebuilders Kb, I know that you are concerned about the homebuilders. Here in Atlanta the residential single family market is VERY strong in the starter home ("shotgun house") market. Low rates make it much easier and much more likely that people move from apartments (and double-wides) to starter homes. The high-end market is weak, but existing homeowners are refinancing with 15 year loans (same monthly payment) or new 30 year loans (lower monthly payment), and thereby improving their net position. While I can appreciate shorting TOL, I think that there may be better intermediate-term shorts among the apartment REIT's (Gables, Summit, Post, Equity Residential, etc.) Of course one (MAJOR) problem in shorting these issues is that you pay the not-insignificant dividend.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (10234)	11/5/2001 8:48:49 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

KB, >> If we no longer have a 30 year bond, how will the markets set a fixed, 30 year rate? << Interesting question. Certainly more interesting than my answer. My answer is, I don't know. My thinking is that perhaps in this time of uncertainty, there may be an opportunity to benefit off the inefficiency of the mortgage rate system. Maybe mortgage rates will overshoot to the downside. A 4.5 or 5% mortgage interest rate? Certainly could be a boom for the real estate market. Maybe with much lower interest rates, we'll see the market go to 15 year loans and shy away from 30 year loans. Just a thought. A 15 year loan with lower payments than a previous 30 year loan would certainly add wealth to the common "Joe." Anyone have a site that shows current mortgage rates and updates it? da-curious-bum