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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3566)	11/6/2001 9:26:53 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 99280

Zeev: You might want to look at QCOM's report and AHs trading if you have not already.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3566)	11/6/2001 9:49:23 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Respond to of 99280

How's CCMP advancing their revenues in light of this information on silicon wafers shipments. How advanced are their products relative to competitors who must be really hurting. Is there any chance that they are stuffing the channel with slurries. siliconstrategies.com SAN JOSE -- It's gone from bad to worse for suppliers of blank silicon wafers amid the current and sharp IC downturn. Worldwide silicon wafer shipments declined by 17% in the third quarter of 2001, compared to the second period of this year, according to a new forecast from the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade organization here today. In its quarterly analysis of the silicon wafer industry, SEMI estimated that silicon wafer shipments were 824 million square inches in the third quarter of 2001. This was a 17% decline from 988 million square inches shipped during the second quarter of 2001 and down 43% compared to the third quarter of 2000, according to SEMI. In the second quarter of 2001, worldwide shipments of blank silicon wafer substrates for chip production fell 21%, compared to unit volumes in Q1 (see Aug. 6 story ). "Conditions in the silicon market remain poor as the global semiconductor industry continues to weather one of the worst years in its history," said Stanley T. Myers, president and CEO of SEMI of San Jose. "Quarterly silicon shipments have not been as low since the fourth quarter of 1996," Myers said. "The percent change from peak to bottom, however, is around 46%, which is comparable to the recession of 1985," he said. There's even more bad news for suppliers of silicon wafers and their customers. "The ongoing industry contraction has impacted future investment in expansion of silicon production and next-generation wafer technologies," he said. In the third quarter, worldwide shipments of polished wafers were 636 million square inches, according to SEMI. This compares to 732 million square inches in the second quarter of 2001 and 1.1 billion in the like period a year ago, SEMI said. Worldwide shipments of epitaxial wafers were 149 million square inches in the quarter, compared to 207 million in the second quarter of 2001 and 303 million in the like period a year ago, they said. Non-polished wafer shipments were 39 million square inches in the quarter, compared to 49 million in the second quarter and 74 million a year ago, according to SEMI.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3566)	11/6/2001 10:02:00 PM
From: Pierre	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

I have not seen anyone commenting on two important numbers today, the NYSE tick went to plus 1250, a very extreme number. Thanks for the recap, Zeev. A question about the extreme tick - wouldn't that indicate a "blow off" that should yield a pretty dramatic turn around tomorrow? I would think a morning "mark down" with a run to 1850 not consistent with the last hour's action. With QCOM disappointing, and Japan tanking, it would seem we had a classic high volume blow off that last hour or so. Shouldn't we expect a strong retrenchment stating right out of the gate in the morning? Believe me, not here to argue with you, just trying to learn my trade by talking to the master. Since I am short the semis, I have a problem separating what I "hope" will happen from what the market is "signalling" will happen. I already have to hope Jay gets really "pissed off" tomorrow. :>) I'm afraid I've got too much hoping and not enough analyzing going on. Looking to you (as always) for enlightenment. TIA. Pierre

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3566)	11/6/2001 10:14:52 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

If we breach 1754 in th next 5 days, the breakout we had today should be considered one of those "whipsaws". If we hold, reducing cash should be called for Can you elaborate now? What are your thoughts if 1754 holds? TIA Jay

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3566)	11/6/2001 11:02:02 PM
From: anon	Respond to of 99280

"For tomorrow, I have a "mark them down in the morning" and then another strong rally attempt." That's what i have tomorrow too, Zeev. i think everyone was anxiously awaiting your return. -g-

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3566)	11/6/2001 11:52:54 PM
From: m1o2n3i4c5k6	Respond to of 99280

Thanks Zeev, very reassuring to have the Captain back at the helm.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3566)	11/7/2001 1:06:01 AM
From: chip	Respond to of 99280

Zeev, I'm hearing this end of January climax more and more. Are you thinking past that point yet? I guess I'm wondering if the December low will be time to start thinking about building some longer-term positions that go beyond that date ... Chip

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3566)	11/7/2001 1:25:24 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Hi Zeev, Good to see you back again... what a day eh ? Would you know of a source that can give me in an approximate basis the amount it is claimed to be in "money market" funds sitting idle... Somewhere I read that given the latest interest rate cut, the saving rate is @ 2%, which according to this article, it becomes a negative 1/2%... I imagine is due to whatever inflation we may have. Thus... "forcing" these saving funds to seek a better return... the size of "these funds" is said to be six TRILLION dollars. I would like to confirm if the above is true... so If you know of any publication please let me know. I would appreciate it.