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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (4896)	11/7/2001 1:57:44 PM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Never posted anything, at S.I., about the last BGEN release which estimated sales of Amevive reaching $500 million three years from approval. In the same release BGEN pushed back the launch of Amevive until late 2002 or first quarter 2003. But, was very interested in hearing what others thought, given that at conferences, Amevive was said to be a billion dollar drug. Long time ago I posited that if the duration was as long as claimed then this would work against sales. Or is there some other reason? Is the market now seen as smaller? Competition from several others, stronger? The issue of the possible need for a license from DNA has never again been mentioned, but it may appear in their third quarter S.E.C. filing as it did in the second quarter, but perhaps with an update. BGEN provided no explanation for the new estimated approval date. But, BGEN got a free ride from the financial press. Even the one broker downgrade mentioned neither the delay nor the 50% reduction of potential market for Amevive.

To: Biomaven who wrote (4896)	11/7/2001 4:27:03 PM
From: Harold Engstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Right. The lack of deal-flow can be disconcerting. I think the Antegren deal was big and is a hopeful sign for the future. OTOH, it was almost necessary as the companies both had an IP position that would have required licensing agreements at some point, and for Elan Biogen's $200MM facility in RTP in a time of severe capacity constraint was probably a factor as well. It was a win for both companies. I think that SRA will not be a big factor. Perhaps a factor in future growth and wrt market share, but not a factor wrt absolute scripts. Would like to see Biogen make an acquisition of a company with good R&D and tools that eliminate doomed compounds in preclinical or PI clinical studies.