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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (10997)	11/8/2001 1:07:05 AM
From: pezz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Perhaps one should try to analyze what we believe are the right *reasons* stocks go up and look at what are called the wrong reasons. I think conventional thought looks too much to the company / economy and less to the stock in it self.... If fools push up the price of Dot Coms ain't the idea to ride'em up?.........Now I ain't sayin that this is easy mind ya but seems to me that tis a more fruit full and direct way to play this game. I have a friend who does play the ponies...He always bets long shots...I asked him if he really thought that a particular 10 to 1 shot would win. He said that he figured that the odds were 5 to 1 not 10 to 1 and if he made the bet 5 times he would win once and the payoff would be 10.... OK,OK I know it's not the same but the point is I see it as a game of odds and what I must do is find stocks that the odds quoted are not the real odds . A simple risk reward ratio . How I determine my reasons are mostly directly tied to the stock itself.....Not the company. What group is it in . Is that group in favor or not ? What does the tape and chart tell me with regard to supply demand?......Yes I do look at the companies last qt report and the guidance given . And I give this as much credence as I give to any "story" [ such as energy cell , dot com's etc.] That is... what do I think that the street thinks of it [ earnings/ story ] The demand supply ratio is what drives'em IMO.... Mind you I don't care what I think of a companies potential . Just what does the street think! What the hell do I know? After all if the street likes it they supply the demand to push the stock price and that's all we care about....No? Himmmmm......Time to go and pick up tomorrows IBD.

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (10997)	11/11/2001 2:49:19 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Kastelco, Year end mathematical tallying – The portfolio is up 8% year-to-date and will likely miss my originally intended 11% primarily because I made no appreciable equity / option trade to matter, and had simply depended on cash income of the real estate and bonds to do the lifting. My allocation position, unlike that of Abby Jo Cohen, has not changed appreciably. I do not understand where Abby gets her cash for the repeated upping of equity allocation, but I have to earn it first. I had bravely tripled my earlier position in GX 2007 8.75% bonds the day after Columbus Day. My first tranche was purchased at 70 cents on the dollar about three weeks earlier, and the post-Columbus Day second tranche (tripling) was done at 19.5 cents on the dollar. I do not planned to average down again because I remember my Bangkok Bank experience during the practice run of the current script back in 1997-98, namely, there can be always another 70% down to go, mathematically speaking. So, current allocation … Cash 42.8% (38.5% Euro, 12.5% CHF, 1.5% AUSD, rest USD) Bonds 23.8% (valued at cost) Gold and platinum metals 5.4% Rental Real Estate 23.4% (value at lower of cost and market, for now) Equity 4.6% (AMGN, AOL, CHL, CMCSK, NEM, SNE, Furukawa Electric, HK.5, …) I have outstanding short positions in December NEM Put 20, Call 22.5, January SWC Put 20 (yup, an apparent mistake). I have no material debt to speak of, but having arranged lines of credit in a few currencies, ready for I seriously do not know what. I am closing in November on a quarter share in a piece of beach land in Thailand, but this represents ‘new-add’ from current year active savings and will not be included in NAV calculation until the start of the next year. The Japanese government is advising ‘no-travel’ to Philippines (yup, my bolt hole retreat from global disaster is now a front line but undefended state), Malaysia and Indonesia, and so our little partnership of resort developers intend to put up something good for whatever remains of the tourism market. Either Abby is wrong, to the tune of very, or I am, to the sound of somewhat. Chugs, Jay