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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3890)	11/8/2001 12:54:19 AM
From: anon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

"my timing called for a top Nov 7th plus minus two days. Of course, by Friday we should now if that call was right or wrong," Zeev, i have friday as down.. basically morning high around 10:30 then down all day but we need a weak last hour tomorrow for me to be sure about that (Friday). That's the map i have for now. edit: this can change depending on tomorrow

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3890)	11/8/2001 1:38:59 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

LMAO on QCOM quote.cboe.com Someone knew that the earnings would be bad. So they bet against it. Guess what the crooks did. Rally the damn thing. UFB. quote.cboe.com Note: These puts came out of the blue. I looked a week or so ago and QCOM seemed to be a bet to fall to 45. Looking again now, it rises. Some people believe in this stuff, others do not. Look at KRB. Relatively big bets against it at 30. So... KRB rises last couple days. This market right now is EXTREMELY easy for the MMs to manipulate. Bulls are nervous, bears are extremely nervous. We are screwed when we zig, we are screwed when we zag. I did a P/C analysis that suggested EMLX would be relatively strong. It fell, but guess what. It rallied right on time. Look at JNPR 11000 bets on 22.5 11000 bets against 22.5 Guess where JNPR finishes. I should have looked at this when JNPR dipped to 19. The crooks can hedge either way so who knows. A very very reasonable play would be to sell the 22.5 call and the 22.5 put. Look at INTC. quote.cboe.com Nov 25's are reasonably close Nov 27.5's are insane. 50,000 bets on 7,000 bets against. This is a joke. No way INTC closes above 27.5 (IF - big IF those are not covered calls that the MMs own and thus would profit from if INTC were to close above 27.5) Although this is a BIG IF, it is an extremely likely IF IMHO. CSCO call options at 17.5 are totally insane. So totally insane IMHO that I believe a decent portion of them just may be covered calls that the MMs own. Look for CSCO to close at precicely 17.5, again IF J6P has those calls. There are many many reasons to discount pain. In a sharply rising or falling market, it is not useful at all. At or near turning points, you certainly want Pain on your side IMHO. Best thing to do here is 1) bet on the crooks and that generally means down 2) but if they are hedeged we go higher - sad to say we do not know who owns the calls and puts. e.g, If someone sold 10,000 covered calls and someone bought 10,000 puts at the same price (say 50) it might appear that max pain is at 50. It is not. MMs will benefit to have the stock close at 60 so they can buy the stock at 50 and sell it at 60 (while the puts expire worthless). So pain is at 50, stock is at 60 and it looks like pain did not work. Rest assured pain did work, it just did not look like it. Thus, be wary of max pain. When it works it works, when it does not it does not. I do like to consider the possibilities this close to expiry. Where did all those QCOM puts come from? Next time whoever bought all those things should play at least another month out. M

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3890)	11/8/2001 8:27:29 AM
From: Paul A	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Well, I think what your forgetting is Larry feels that all shorts loss money so this is where hes shooting from : ) Everytime I see someone post a message to that regards it just really 'steams' me.. Its one piece of advice I will never listen to nor should anyone. What people SHOULD say is 'shorting is not for me.. I cannot do it..' Shorting taught me how to manage my money.. how to allocate the funds, and I found that my profits on the long side have increased substantially since I started playing both sides.. Its a huge disservice to newbies seeing people make statements like that.. A good portion of this rally is a result of short selling at what people keep thinking is the top.. This benefits longs, and at the very least people need to understand short selling even if its not for them.. : )

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (3890)	11/8/2001 8:28:28 AM
From: traderjml	Respond to of 99280

Market Overbought, Jay Shartsis of Thestreet.com Lately, the most accurate indicator I look at has been the mirror-image OEX put/call ratio. Here is how the indicator works: It is very bullish when out-of-the-money OEX puts are priced more than 10 times the out-of-the-money OEX calls. The puts were as much as 18 to 1 about two weeks ago, which was very bullish. They were still 5 to 1 earlier this week. That has now changed. As I write this on Wednesday afternoon, the OEX is 576 and the November 545 put is bid 2.10, and its counterpart, the November 605 call, is bid 0.90. This has to be rated as bearish. In the past, I have seen the call priced more than the put, which is quite bearish -- but that situation is very rare, and I wouldn't wait for it. During the rally Wednesday, the OEX November 590 call was also unable to move up, even when the S&P December future was up about five points. This nonconfirmation is unusual; the OEX calls normally move up if their pricing mechanism, the S&P futures, moves up. When they don't it is often a warning sign of an imminent selloff. This, by the way, is a very short-term indicator. The Nasdaq market has now recorded a five-day TRIN or Arms Index of 4.81, and that's very overbought. There have also been quite a few episodes of "plus ticks" above 1000 on the NYSE; a high of + 1231 was seen on Tuesday. That reading is associated with a sharply overbought condition