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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (133815)	11/10/2001 9:38:52 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Hey Myth my friend, how about them Gints? -g Some recent posts from the bastard child thread that may be of interest: COT Update Message 16636999 Rydex Bullish% Update Message 16637994 Dow lows a comin' soon enough Message 16638117

To: MythMan who wrote (133815)	11/10/2001 9:42:15 AM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

this guy votes bye bye to the range and to the eventual destruction of clowns -g- check out his targets.. LOL. i can't beleive they let him say this sh*t on TV -vbg- 11/09/01: Market Monitor-Frank Cochrane,President of Investment Timing Consultants PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Frank Cochrane, the President of Investment Timing Consultants, an investment advisory firm based in Farmington Hills, Michigan. And welcome back, Frank. FRANK COCHRANE, PRESIDENT, INVESTMENT TIMING CONSULTANTS: Thank you very much, Paul. It's great to be here. KANGAS: You know, Wall Street had a rather muted reaction, it was somewhat positive, but it was all about the big decline in wholesale prices, not a real rally on that at all. Do you think there's some concern that the economy might be heading for a deflationary recession? COCHRANE: Well, if you look at the stock market, I would say no. However, I think that concern we'll rule out some time next year and that prices will start deflating, and they've started already, and I think we'll see a continuation of that going well into next year and into '03. So it's certainly a concern of mine and I think the stock market rate here has provided one of the great levitation acts, especially over the past six weeks. KANGAS: Well, on your last visit with us back on June 1 when the Dow was at 11,000, you were decidedly bearish and correctly so. So has the stock market's subsequent decline made you any more positive now? It doesn't sound like it. COCHRANE: No. In fact, I think that this is one of these times when the market has given us another reason to sell, an opportunity here to sell into this. If I look at the market over the, say, the next three, six, 12 months, I think very possibly through the end of this you're going to see stocks move considerably lower. You may have a rally next week but I'm saying in December especially when people realize the losses that they have, I mean- KANGAS: Give us a down side estimate of where you think the Dow could go. COCHRANE: Well, a year out, some time within the fourth quarter of '02, I would say that the Dow could be around the 5,500 level, the S&P 500 around 500, 600 and the NASDAQ Composite somewhere in the 600 to 800 level. If we look at historical valuations with respect to P/E multiples on the S&P 500, we're trading right now somewhere, if you believe the numbers, somewhere around 36, 37, and an overvaluation is 20. And that puts the S&P around 750. A fair value would be at 550 at 15 P/E and an under value would be at 10, and that would be right around 400 on the S&P 500. so right now obviously trading at the 1,100 and change level, the S&P 500 is very, very over valued, as is the Dow Industrials and the NASDAQ.