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To: AllansAlias who wrote (133822)	11/10/2001 10:58:48 AM
From: At_The_Ask	Respond to of 436258

they seem to really hate the spoo's. I wonder why they have chosen to short it so heavily. When I was checking p\c the open interest on s and p puts was like 2 to 1. (I think this was for FRi. only. Someone may want to verify overall) the other indexes were even favoring calls in fact. Especially the naz. It has been out performing throughout this whole thing. I may have to reconsider getting in the way of tech. Perhaps they are just hedging long tech vs. short S and P. My charts on NDX really arent telling me anything on a major scale at this point. I expect this rally to top at the low to mid 1900's at the most. If they dont stop at this point. Although it seems I remember that the dow after the big crash stopped at 35 and then retraced to 200 I believe 400 was the 29 peak. So who knows maybe we see a huge retrace on the NDX. I definitely expect it at some point and I also expect it to be the post bear high. 50% of the entire collapse is = to 1864 points. Added to 1088 the low gives us 2952. Or as I'm sure you prefer .382 of the total drop from the high would give a retrace of 1424 added to the lows would create a peak of 2512. HMMMMMM Well food for thought anyway. My apologies for not checking facts right now but I gotta run. Im sure you know the exact numbers anyway. No matter what I think we melt a little on monday the extent remains to be seen.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (133822)	11/10/2001 2:42:00 PM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Hey allan, thank you much for posting that material, it's extremely helpful. i have a couple questions for you and i'm truly just trying to ascertain if my analysis is flawed in any way. 1) why are so many on the e-wave thread convinced the CRB is about to make a bold move up? the bounce off the 1999 low isn't really unexpected. there's a fairly reasonable trendline connecting points of oct 2000, apr 2001 and aug 2001. in fact, you'll note that in sept. the CRB hugged this line for a few days but it's ultimate failure signaled the CRB's deterioration. so in my mind, a bounce back to that trendline seems reasonable (191ish). but given the technical picture of the CRB, combined with the complete lack of inflationary pressures, it seems like a failure of the double bottom is the most likely scenario at this point. 2) i can't quite understand how sentiment, in the short term at the very least, favors a move to the upside. the bulls are pretty fervent here, and even the steadfast bears have reconciled themselves to further upside action in the short run. i'm a big VIX follower and basically three ranges have been broken down in a row: 32-40, 32-30 and 30-28. 28 is pretty strong support and given the incredible run we've had in the last few weeks, it's hard for me to fathom another thrust up here. that being said, the last 2 weeks have certainly caught me off guard. TIA and again i appreciate you sharing your work. ST