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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: que seria who wrote (10471)	11/12/2001 2:55:43 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Hi qs, I couldn't agree more on the valuation issue but I thought I'd pass on some information from a friend at Nortel. Of all the companies in the sector, he has said time and again that CIEN would probably be the "safest" investment and that many of the companies who compete with them will (most likely) not make it out of this downturn. I have heard this same opinion voiced by others not associated with NT, so I believe there will be greater support for CIEN then you might find with other companies with similar fundies. fwiw.

To: que seria who wrote (10471)	11/12/2001 6:43:44 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

ONIS thinks bottom is hit! With this news I cut my ONIS share in half. qs, I started investing as a pure value oriented fundamentalist in 1992/93. But I came to notice that I floundered while techs made all the gains. When I decided to buy tech, I went after those with the best fundamentals. Again, my selections floundered while the niche leaders (whose PE's and BV's always seemed to be out of reach) skyrocketed. I only started beating the market when I crossed over to the dark side, buying the leaders, keeping an eye on the fundamental arguement, but not becoming a slave to it. Playing the CIEN's, SEBL's and ONIS's have been profitable for me over the past 3-4 years. Knowing when to bail is the key. You can short CIEN here, but I don't think technicals support such as move right now. That said, I'm beating the market this year, however I'm not in the black YTD, with the exception of my wife's 401K. I'm up nearly 50% since Oct 1, but not quite in the black. I remember KB or somebody saying that a 33% drop in portfolio value requires a 50% increase to get back to breakeven. I'm finding out first hand how true that is. BALTIMORE (CBS.MW) -- The chief executive of ONI Systems asserted on Monday that ONI will survive the economic downturn and emerge as a "leader" in the market for equipment to bring high-speed networking to dense urban areas. "I challenge anyone: we will be a survivor," said CEO Hugh Martin at Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown's annual technology conference in Baltimore. "We will be a leader." Like other telecommunications equipment makers, ONI Systems (ONIS: news, chart, profile) has endured falling sales and bigger losses amid a sharp cutback in spending by phone and data carriers. Yet CEO Hugh Martin said conversations with customers has persuaded him that declines in capital spending have hit "bottom." Sales should start to pick up next year, especially in the so-called metro market, Martin said. ONI produces optical gear that enables carriers to offer advanced data services in crowded cities. Many buildings, particularly smaller ones, lack the full ability to tap into high-speed networks. Martin said phone carriers will spend more on metro equipment and far less on "long-haul" gear used to speed up the flow of information over long-distance networks. During the boom years of 1998-2000, carriers spent the bulk of their money on long-haul products. Looking to the fourth quarter, Martin reiterated previous forecasts. ONI expects to achieve sales of $40 million to $50 million - revenue totaled $40.2 million in the third quarter -- and post a loss of 16 cents to 20 cents a share. Recent initiatives to save money, which included a workforce reduction, should enable the company to fund its operations out of its own cash reserves for the next four years if necessary, Martin said. He also said the company is holding active discussions with 147 potential customers. ONI has publicly announced 27 customers. The ONI CEO said the driving force in optical sales will be the Baby Bells, most of which are starting to test a variety of metro products. He did not specify when they would start making mass purchases, though most industry analysts believe that it could take several years or more. The Bells tend to move cautiously. One quasi-Bell company, Qwest Communications (Q: news, chart, profile), already is a large customer of ONI Systems, Martin noted. Qwest bought US West last year and offers local phone service in 14 Western states. Martin said the two rivals he fears most are Ciena (CIEN: news, chart, profile)] and Nortel Networks (NT: news, chart, profile). He argued that Nortel lags behind and has been distracted by internal turmoil related to the Canadian vendor's massive restructuring. Ciena poses more of a threat, he said. ONI shares ended the day up 84 cents, or 13 percent, to $7.50.