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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (35113)	11/12/2001 10:37:59 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 67845

[madtrader] Mon Nov 12, 7:30pm PST 138.2% retracement Here is another interesting observation from the crash of 2000. After the initial sharp drop in Apri, NDX immediately retraced 50% of the move but rolled over in May to eventually down to the 138.2% on the downside before recovering. On that retest of the lows, numerous oscillators registered a higher low reading, rendering the rally afterwards quite rewarding. If we are to repeat the same pattern of movements this time. Here are the next downside targets for the market based on Fibonacci studies. (I am including DJI and SPX as well because the move this year is across the board, unlike the diverging market of 2000). For Nasdaq Comp the downside target is 1027, NDX is 719, DJI is 6826, SPX is 800, QQQ is $17.80. none. [madtrader] Mon Nov 12, 6:42pm PST 50% retracement Since the market has been stuck right below it's 50% retracement levels for the past few days. I did an interesting exercise to see which stocks in NDX actually did manage to do the 50% retracement along with NDX. The purpose of this exercise is to try and weedout the low relative strength performers. Sure, there were some very high percentage bouncers from their September lows, but most of those names were near penny stock status near the lows or trading near the teens. And often times, despite their eye popping bounce, they couldn't even get anywhere close to doing a 50% retrace. So, in reality, these names are really market-underperformers. All they did was having a high beta bounce, and these are potential disasters waiting to happen. I went back and did the same scan 50% retracement bouncers during the March/April 2000 crash and found names that did do at least the 50% retrace in late April (the NDX did that) went on to perform much better during the retest in May and subsequently bounced well through summer of 2000 as well. The ones that didn't simply slide further as the May drop came along. For example, names like INTC and SUNW bounced better than NDX in April and went on to make further new highs in summer of 2000 before rolling over. This time around, we have big cap names like MSFT, INTC and CSCO all doing their share of 50% or better retracement. Other standouts are names like: BRCM, BBBY, CHIR, GILD, FISV, IDPH, CEFT, MCHP, MXIM, COST, NVDA, PCAR, SPLS, and QLGC. Names like EMLX, INKT, and CMGI did manage to do triple digit bounces from their lows, but they did no better than the market during the same period (From the peak of May to the lows of September). I decided to take this exercise a step further and look for names that are above their 50% retracement levels from the peak of March 2000. The list shrank down to just a handful. They are: BBBY, FISV, GILD, CHIR, CEFT, MCHP, NVDA COST and PCAR. I would have to believe these few names are going to be our leadership names going forward. none.