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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (21043)	11/13/2001 9:28:45 PM
From: Doo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

JRI: I'm not playing any risky game in this market other than legalized day-gambling, short...long, which ever way the wind blows. :) I could care less what the market does beyond the next 15-45 minutes of trading. I think any effort to make sense of it longer than that for trading purposes, either bull or bear, is largely a waste of time, and will make a fool or a poor man out of you, sooner or later. V shaped, double bottomed, catastrophic big kahuna, raging bull.....don't matter a bit, to me. I'm not saying it can't be done, but few are able to predict such things, on a consistent basis. I will say this again, however. The intermediate term stuff I watch says the 9/21 low is a 3 to 9 month low, and the VIX and IIA sentiment numbers all confirm. The low was confirmed in early October on very simple price and volume signals I've watched since 1995. I don't expect to see anything different at the turn down from this from this run than we've seen at other intermediate term turns for as long as I've monitored them with these indicators. I don't think we are there yet, and maybe not even close. Whether this is still a bear market rally(which I suspect it is) or a new bull (which seems highly doubtful), the indicators I've followed quite some time remain true until they prove themselves untrue. I see nothing different in the behavior of the VIX now than I've seen at any point in time before. If you see something objectively different in the behavior of the VIX now as opposed to at any identifiable time in the past, then that's great. Trade it large. I was simply offering my observations since you seem intent on finding some meaning in a short term move of the VIX to an area that seems insignificant to me for the kind of move you've been trying to catch the top of for several weeks. I still don't find much objective in your explanation of how you are viewing the VIX, frankly. I'm not sure, as a day trader or swing trader, why you care what the economy is doing or what the "most hardened bulls would" or would not recognize, but if it works for you, congratulations. You seem to be a guy with "visibility" on what kind of market this is and will be, and I hope you are right about it and your view of the VIX. For me, I only know what my intermediate term stuff tells me, even though I don't really rely on it for my daytrading purposes. In the past, when I relied on that kind of information to guide me in trading equities solely from the long side, it was quite useful and reliable. Maybe it is now worthless noise. Who knows? Best of luck.