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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (48853)	11/13/2001 11:38:19 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>> a question worth considering is whether we think that any of the silverbacks are on, or are approaching, main street. Imo, the Silverbacks (Microsoft, Intel, Oracle, and Cisco) are well down Main Street. I believe that's why we coined the name to begin with. Each of them is well past their Tornado years, though they try to find new ones to spur their growth (as in Mr. Softee's X-Box venture), and their products are institutionalized and vital to their sectors. Microsoft is leading the march down Main Street, and is morphing into a cash cow, a la GE. Perhaps the others will take this path as well. jmho (and waiting for Merlin to set me straight), uf

To: tekboy who wrote (48853)	11/14/2001 2:30:41 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

wasn't he quoted more than once as putting JDSU, not to mention QCOM, in that category? We pointed out that article from MSN.com in which Geoff stated that both JDS Uniphase and Qualcomm might be "possible young gorillas in the making". Yet, he didn't state that they were gorillas yet. moneycentral.msn.com I remember we ran his comments through the ringer at the time - which we should have - and still continue to do so. moreover, regarding whether existing gorillas are sufficient for most portfolios, wouldn't it depend at least somewhat on where they were in the TALC? I mean, a question worth considering is whether we think that any of the silverbacks are on, or are approaching, main street. That would have important consequences for portfolio management, among other things.... The Silverbacks all passed the tornado stage long ago on their primary product growth machines. It's also difficult to find evidence that Microsoft as a public company ever put up revenue numbers that qualified as tornado growth as the PC adoption cycle unfolded. In terms of those involved in the PC industry, we can certainly measure that category as having reached Main Street. However, the growth and broadening of their product lines involve other areas outside of the desktop PC industry. Wireless, internet, gaming consoles, servers, etc... . The cash position at MSFT, INTC and CSCO certainly puts all three in a position to continue to survive and use their power and market position to broaden into additional areas of growth. Cisco and Microsoft have no debt. All are subject to the economic business cycle which tempers growth in the contraction phase and fuels growth in the expansion phase. In spite of their category leading positions, we saw the market take Microsoft up to $119 and down to $40, Intel up to $75 and down to $18 as well as Cisco up to $82 and down to $11 from the height of the expansion mania to the bottoms thus far. That just covers the last surge before the fall. If you run back and cover Cisco from 1990, Microsoft from 1986 and Intel from 1971 - there are other peaks and valleys where the risk/reward scenario was tipped in either the direction of buying or selling the shares on shorter term time frames. They remain compelling companies for their category dominance and will most likely respond to economic expansion through the next business cycle. BB