Kodiak re: ["here is your clarion call on August 1st,2000"]
Here's another reality check Kodiak:
You took my comments entirely out of context.
Here is the entire post and my comments were about the FORWARD LOOKING opportunities unfolding for being able to exit Oil's coming top and to simultaneously be able to ROTATE to Golds forming bottom ... as part of a portfolio shift I called "THE HAT TRICK" - which was:
1. Taking Oil profits on all further strength & exiting the patch
2. Rotating those profits into all further weakness in golds
3. Shorting the NAZ
... now go back and pull up the charts (hell I allready posted the gold charts vs the broad market) and tell me that wasn't a very prescient call ?
Where was the NAZ, the HUI, the OSX then and where are they now ?!?!? (that's a rhetorical question) !
Anyway - here's the entire post you misrepresented: and PS - the OSX topped out at 140 just days later !
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To:Roebear who wrote (70257)
From: SliderOnTheBlack Monday, Jul 31, 2000 4:43 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 94466
Anyone buying ?
Hmmm; TIPS, Gold Stocks, or MRL here ?
Nibbled MRL today; looking at TIPS down the road; dipping into Golds on any new lows; got a nice piece of FCX as it neared breaking $8 of late.
Bullsky, Roebear - Give me one more Oilpatch run to new highs this fall - with the XAU between 40-50 and I'll get on my knees and give thanks...
***KODIAK***(...now what did I just say there ? - give me an exit opp at OSX 140/new highs and an opportuntity to rotate that money into XAU 40-50 - and quote/unquote - "I'll get on my knees and give thanks"....and Kodiak; what happened shortly thereafter ? The OSX popped to 140 and I got my exit. Then what happened ? The XAU fell under 50 and bottomed at 41 - and I loaded into that bottom.)***
At OSX 140-150 - I'll be making that cash register sing...taking the money & running to Gold & TIPS.
I think Buffet, Soros, Robertson et al - know this is an unsustainable bubble market. When Solid Tech companies sell off 30-50% in a single day; on a .01 cent eps miss, or a 5% revenue miss - somethings wrong.
If THAT is not the sign of a bubble market supported by pure momenteum investing - what would be ?
Read Capt Freddy on Yahoo & his thoughts on what the Arabs will do with a collapsing dollar - which we WILL see. Why would they take BOTH a lower valued/collapsing dollar and less of a price for Crude ? Gold is their only logical hedge and guess what - the Kuwaiti's loaned out a huge portion of their physical Gold Reserves to bail out the markets last September on the first snuffed out Gold Rally. Once the Arab's start cashing in dollars folks - they WILL be running to GOLD and the story of the decade breaks out.... play Oil to GOLD and time it right - and be a very, very happy man.
Anyone else notice what a significant seller of Oil Stocks the Fidlelity Family Funds have consistantly been since May ?
Oil has NEVER held up in any bear market, or significant overall market correction - not a single one and it won't this time either.
Gold will see its day... the derivatives players have created a financial monster worse than what Long Term Capital did with their Asset Backed Security Derivatives... and THAT is what will turn Gold into the Story of the first decade of the new millenium - bank on it. Maybe Gold does only rise up once every 25 years ? - So, what... just make sure you're positioned for this one...they can't keep their finger in the dikes much longer. Post the election; perhaps by next spring imo...another major market event.
Ride the final Oil rally & then take the money & run to TIPS & GOLD ~ for 2001 as inflation rears its ugly head....
PS - anyone really trust the CPI/PPI info going into the election anyway ? ... and it's really about Money Supply anyway... INFLATION..it's here & it aint going away any time soon ~
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tommy-boy... you should have caught the TIPS at the bottom (VBG)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
That was my original thoughts on making a macro portfolio weighted shift from Oil to Gold... and here are later posts reflecting "building those positions" into weakness and averaging in and doing so - into what became - literally the cheapest 90 day window in the last 20 years for accumulating gold stocks - period.
And fwiw; even using your incorrect date of August 1st; the HUI (unhedged gold stock index) stood at 50.75 that day & today after a pullback from its high of 79; it is at HUI 61.67 - still a 20% upside move - as compared to the OSX being in the 130's and today sitting in the 60's ! - so once again; explain how rotating out of Oils top and into Golds bottom was such a poor call - even using your date ?
Once again; if picking the cheapest 90 days out of the last 20 years isn't "good" enough... what more needs to be said ?
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Message 14279287
(From the GOLD PRICE MONITOR THREAD)
["To:Tom Byron who wrote (57618)
From: SliderOnTheBlack Saturday, Aug 26, 2000 9:49 AM
View Replies (3) | Respond to 56637 of 79395
per Tom's post: "The energy complex getting out of control"
Bingo ! - glad to see others are seeing the high "potential" of an Oil crisis coming to fruition this winter during peak demand season - creating a true "Oil Crisis" and the accompanying market reactions & flights to safety.
<<. Alot may depend
upon the energy complex getting quickly out of control, price-wise.
Fundamentally everything is in place. Add in the fact that the US has treated
Muslims worse than dirt for decades, and some fundamental uprising may be
underway. But I can wait if not. Empire collapses aren't that much fun anyway.>>
... I still think that Black Gold's spike will create THE breakout for Yellow Gold.
Politically; given the present realization that OPEC has no substantial additional capacity to bring to market; Saddam & Iraq now have the ability to bring total chaos to the Oil markets. Should G.W. Bush be elected; would that bring an interesting scenario to mind ?
Saddam & Iraq can not only control Oil prices as they are unquestionably now the "true" swing producer; but they can literally place an immediate "Pox on the House of Bush" - with an inflationary Oil crisis to greet him upon innauguration.
A peak demand season spike in Crude & related products (heating Oil)will create an initial flight to safety move in gold's and should "this" move have enough additional follow through - which I think it will given the technical double bottom the XAU has put in and the general "value play" nature of many Gold Stocks; the short covering is the key to the spike in the POG.
All of these short-derivative plays will be unwound one day and it is far, far more likely to be caused by a "LTC" type of crisis; than any future slow & steady unwinding of the position accompanied by a slow steady climb in the POG.
It will be "event" driven and the "event" potential is falling into place.
Black Gold's spike will unleash the fall of the house of cards that the Gold Carry Trade has built.
A great trading opp is shaping up as well. We've got the potential to hop off of a new alltime OSX high - taking the profits & nearly simultaneously rotating to a near historic low in the XAU stocks - the 3rd leg the "Hat Trick" will be a "short" on the NAZ & Tech - as an Oil spike will generate enough inflationary pressure to greet the new Presidential administration (perhaps Greenspanless - he should have "got" while the "getting" was good - with Rubin) and further 2001 rate hikes will lead to a collapse of the Tech valuation multiple bubble.
I am NOT a "Gold Bug" - never have been. I merely see the unsustainability of the present short-derivative positions & the blatant manipulation of the POG as very similar to what Crude Oil just went through.
In late 1998 we saw $8 Crude Oil and the talk of $5 Oil. Everyone spoke of Crude Oil as being a commodity whose time had come & went - given new technologies; not to mention its now much diminished role in inflation (remember food & energy are free - certainly not inflationary, or consumer spending components, or related to future industrial costs; right ?).
This theory of course proved to be unsustainable & history taught us that $8 crude virtually guarantee's and equal price spike swing back into the other direction - this unsustainable short position in Gold can not be sustained either & it will also trigger a price spike swing in the other direction led by an unwinding of the short derivative positions that have become irrational.
It only needs an "EVENT" to trigger it and the reasonable potential of a Crude Oil spike this winter may just become that catalyst.
I wonder if Saddam & Iraq have accumulated any Gold of late with the proceeds of all that smuggled black market crude ?
By the way - there are some interesting intelligence reports circulating from the Israeli's on this issue - it's doesn't take much "Thinking Outside the Box" as to what's Saddam's thinking here now does it ?
Saddam vs. the House of Bush - part deux
We shall see...
- The "Hat Trick" is falling into place:
1. Ride Black Gold (OSX) to new highs
2. Take substantial Black Gold profits & Rotate to Yellow Gold - to ride the "Crisis" flight to safety & the resulting collapse of the short derivative positions
3. Short the NAZ"]
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sept 7th..."slowly" stopping out of Oils and beginning to enter Golds - "on weakness".
Message 14342016
["I'm slowly raising stops up behind my Oil Stocks - letting them continue to run, but when I get stopped out - I'm continually taking the profits & rotating to Gold - Silver-Copper stocks on weakness & keeping sizeable cash and waiting to short the bubble via some index puts and will begin to then add to individual shorts soon thereafter.
History is about to teach yet another investing generation a lesson - bank on it. We are due for the hibernating Bear to awaken & he's not going to be in a good mood when he arrives... We've still got another substantial leg up in the Oilpatch; but tight trailing stops & a savy exit off the next leg - when we reach yet another euphoric sentiment high off of earnings will be prudent - because the Oils have never risen substantially into a bear market and that's where were heading imho"]
xxxxxxxxxxx
Here on Oct 9th; still "beginning" to build a portfolio weighted position in golds by shifting out of any continued oilpatch strength into gold weakness ie:
Message 14542289
["HM up 7%, SWC up 14%, NEM up 3%, XAU up... trend broken at least.
Lets not forget; the Gold Bugs can & do "Tax Loss - Sell"...
Gotta be a buyer here; but also have to be prepared for XAU 40-43 worst case scenario imho.
***( where did the XAU eventually bottom ?)****
Low $4ish HM ? $3 GOLD, $4ish HGMCY & $15 NEM ? - gotta be a buyer...
Wouldn't mind some SIL in the $8's again either.
PS - $1 DROOY surely beats the slots, the track and lotto tickets (VBG).
Bob Brinker this weekend said the market is merely in the "Anxiety" stage & hasn't reached the "Capitulation" stage - not even close yet, to reach a market bottom - I agree fwiw.
Throw in what Fleckenstein picked up on today - the rumblings of a "1987 junk bond redux" - ie:
<<-- Household International (HI), MBNA Corp (KRB), Capital One (COF) and Providian (PVN) all got smacked hard for no proximate cause that I could see, other than rumors about a couple of brokerage houses having problems in the junk-bond market (1987 redux?). >>
I still say this market is vast overvalued - still a blatant mania-bubble; it's a bubble - it has to be; untill we no longer see one day 50% market cap haircuts for .02 cent earnings misses - hello !?!?!? - it's clearly a bubble...
1. Short the bubble
2. Ride the Black Gold highs & rotate to
3. The Yellow Gold lows... "]
xxxxxxxx
Oct 24th... here I'm talking about the obvious expectations of October bringing Tax Loss Selling & a potential "bottom" to the XAU:
["To:Rarebird who wrote (60092)
From: SliderOnTheBlack Tuesday, Oct 24, 2000 3:47 PM
View Replies (2) | Respond to of 79395
What are the XAU Stocks signaling here ?
.... how about just the obvious ?
That the sector decline broke to new lows at that very opportune time - called Tax Loss Selling Season... it ends at the end of the month for most Funds/Institutions; but can continue untill year end for individuals.
I don't think the XAU stocks lead Gold Prices either very often, nor very accurately.
Encouragingly; the POG is holding steady into a continual series of new EURO lows; maybe the XAU is reacting more to the Euro's weakness; than the POG strength ?
Merely a perfect confluence of events timingwise - new lows right into the end of the fiscal year (Oct) for most mutual funds...
Wouldn't be surprised to see a nice snap back rally in November.
but; who cares ! - buy 'em all the way down; no reason to jump in with both feet in a full & final entry here ? - average in.
***(are you reading that Kodiak ?)****
Personally; I'm buying each 5 points down in the index; next stop the breech of XAU 40 and I'm hoping to get a chance to buy XAU 30 - literally.
Don't worry - be happy ?
The US Dollar can not stay at, nor move up from these levels without imploding US Corportate earnings which will trigger a market selloff and a Global Crisis with our neighbors economies.
Gold literally has a "straddle" here on the US Dollar.
Fundametnally - it will move up on the Dollars weakness; but also since the US Dollar has reached a virtual point of no return in too dangerously stressing the Global Markets on further strength - any significant rise will trigger the next "event" needed to rock the markets - which also can be a POG catalyst.
Patience... and slowly, but surely average into any & all XAU weakness here; that's all that is required.
Lots of new "Gold Bugs" here fwiw.... I've NEVER owned XAU stocks, or Gold before - but; the sentiment similarities in the stocks AND the commodity itself are "deja vu - all over again" identical to the dark days of $10 Oil, the death of OPEC and a free falling OSX.... and I've been there & done that one....
So; come on down Mr. Xau....
Keep the faith - the reinforcements are arriving fella's (VBG) - and they "aint" your grandfathers gold bugs either fwiw - we see the unsustainability of the Gold Derivative crisis, we know the ESF is running out of fingers to plug holes in the dike; Rubin got while the "getting was good" - but, Greenie got the God complex and thinking he can stabilze & manipulate his way out of this one - aint gonna work. He's backed himself into a Stagflation Trap potentially.... an entire new wave of XAU/Gold investors is coming...
While we might not be back for another 20 years; we DO recognize that THIS an a "must" entry point...
US Forces now on Threat Com - Delta... Iraqi troops moving West, lots of potential inflection points in the ME into the face of a US Election.
Imho; the Republicans & ole GW are gonna walk into another mess. Saddam may just welcome GW into office with an Oil Shock/Embargo that also kills a 2nd bird with one stone - the UN - in it's renogitiation of his Oil Quota's & gee; now he wanted all UN holdings converted out of US Dollars & into Euro's right ?
.... Israeli Intel reports for months have mentioned that Saddam has been reportedly hording physical Gold with his Black Market Smuggled Oil Dollars...and the Arabs were heavy Gold buyers on the last Oil Shock & they've got a no brainer hedge against simultaneous falling Oil Prices and a correcting US Dollar - when their US Dollar denominated Oil Receipts go into a major correction upon the exit of peak winter demand heating seasons here in a few months.
An earlier post mentioned the the amount of US debt the Arab world holds... let them monetize it & pull out of US Equities... and what do they HAVE to buy as a natural hedge to simultaneous falling crude prices & a US Dollar and as a play upon thier US market exit ?
Gold "]
xxxxxxxxx
Here on Oct 25th... explaining that I'm not a longtime Goldbug... merely a noveau opportunist:
To:dblclk who wrote (60108)
From: SliderOnTheBlack Wednesday, Oct 25, 2000 10:08 AM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 79395
dblck ? .... hello ?
dbclk ?
... I've been on SI for a couple of years - basically been 100% invested in the Oilpatch during that time other than briefly picking over the ashen ruins of the April-May NAZ Tech Wreck & done pretty well since the OSX run was a 2.5 bagger since the fall of 1998....
I never owned gold, or gold stocks in my life before the entire Gold Derivative situation came to light with the infamous Sept 1999 Gold Rally stamp out and only this past year bought my first gold stocks. Dabbled in & out thru this summer; but of late - given the unsustainable strength of the US Dollar, the inflated NAZ Bubble that's going to implode - saw the light on Golds.
My entire point is I am far, far, far from a "stereotypical Gold Bug" - ie: someone who's either allways maintained a substantial Gold/PM position(let alone ANY position), or more stereotypically - a conspiracy theorist who thinks the world is doomed & only gold is the truth , the light , the way...
I am most definitely a new wave of Gold/PM investors who are here now for the first time because of two primary factors:
1. The market is a mania-bubble that will collapse
2. Gold has been artifically depressed via the ESF's need to hold the POG down to be able to decry that there is no sign of inflations, that food & energy don't matter etc. The entire derivative situation that exploded with their quashing of the Sept 1999 POG rally is what makes the enivatable - "when, not if" rise for Gold so attractive.
I dabbled in AEM FCX & a few others this year as have a few posters on the SD thread; but only recently began establishing any type of portfolio weighting.
****(KODIAK - read that: "only recently began establishing any type of portfolio weighting")****
I have no clue from where you're coming from ?
....I've pounded the table recently pretty consistantly on this:
1. ride the final rally of Black Gold (Oils) - continually taking profits & rotating into all XAU/GOLD weakness
2. establish a portfolio via averaging into the XAU slowly & with a plan
3. short the NAZ bubble
Doing pretty well so far & I'll keep averaging into the Golds - hell; I hope the XAU goes to 30.... I'm a buyer.
Have a nice day dblclk & GO YANKEES !!!!!!!!!!!!
xxxxxxxxxxxxx
To:Ge Ying Fang who wrote (60305)
From: SliderOnTheBlack Sunday, Oct 29, 2000 1:37 PM
View Replies (1) | Respond to of 79395
re: Brinker's comment on the US Dollar replacing Gold...
Brinker "was" right... "was" as in the past-tense of "is"...
It is the inevitable fall of King Dollar that will return Gold to the forefront.
It is the unsustainabilty of King Dollar that assure's it's "inevitable" fall & it is that fall that assure's Gold's rise.
King Dollar is allready creating Global Stress Fractures & once again - the coming repatriation of OPEC Petro-Dollars is the key.
Crude Oil prices will contract dramatically, both from the slowing US demand/GDP growth & OPEC production adds; as well as a natural technical price correction and the dramatic increase in non-opec drilling that we saw post the 1998 exploration/drilling infrastructure collapse with $10 Oil.
The Arabs allways have and obviously must and will; hedge the simultaneous COLLAPSE of their net receivable - ie: a simultaneous falling/correcting US Dollar & Crude Oil prices. - they will & allways have; went to Gold and that they will also go to the Euro, or other Euro-currencies (Swiss/French Franc, DM, Pound etc) is inevitable; as is their repatriation from the US debt & equity markets.
The post mortem of the XAU here of late; was built upon nothing more than the final throes of tax loss selling along with some savy & well times shorts leaning on the sector for some easy money ; taking the XAU to new lows.
A DCB here shortly imo; will add some stability and then we'll being to hear more talk of the potential of a secular Gold Bull appearing here....
PS Greenspans continual & sublte warnings about reforms to address a major US Bank Failure; as well as his warnings about the derivative issues should be heeded... another LTC around the corner ?
... the "Mother of all Short Squeezes" looms somewhere in the future upon the next LTCesque crisis if, or perhaps more correctly - "when" seen; as the Gold Derivative Short Squeeze if/when unwound by a Global Crisis/Event - will surely be something to see ~ and that Petro-Dollar exodus from King Dollar & the US debt & equity market is coming...
PS S: << "...Herve Ferhani, head of foreign exchange with the Bank of France. While discussing the role of gold as a reserve asset, Ferhani said gold may be the "only" risk free asset. Despite its de-monetization, apparently some bankers still feel gold is real money. >>
..."risk free asset" - remember that term ~ and ask yourselves; if those Arab Petro-Dollar Shiek's are going to want any more Priceline.com, or some of the corporate debt that Bill Gross of Pimco has been talking so "glowingly" about of late... (ROFLMAO~).
...the writing is on the wall; for anyone willing to read it & act upon it.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Kodiak & 'bum;
hopefully we can now stipulate to the facts; I said in advance what I would do and I did it.
I exited the Oil Top and caught the Gold bottom... there is nothing to argue about... it's there in black & white.
Using Aug 1, or Sept thru Nov 2000... Gold Stocks have still significantly outperformed virtually every single market sector to date... so what is your "real" point ? |
