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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (24220)	11/15/2001 4:00:51 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

>all declines of 30% or more ended in year 2 or 3,< That's right. Also note that of all declines of 25% or more, 5 out of 6 ended between the 5th & 9th month of yr. 2. I think Don would probably tell us that none of this is statistically viable, since there are not enough samples. One could also reason that the avg. bear market lasts 12 months- so even with a 9/24 bottom, it was 40% longer than avg. A bottom in the Summer of '02 would put it up there in length with only the '29- '32 bear at 24+ months. Meet ya back here next summer to see who's guess is right. <g> There are alot of similarities to the '73- '74 bear, length 21 months, depth 50%. lowrisk.com As of 9/24- The '00- '01bear: length 17 mo., depth 40%. Note that in '74, a strong run up occurred from the bottom in early October, and then a 80% or so retrace occurred during November. Of course this is all in fun- We know that history doesn't repeat exactly- It just rhymes.. <g>