To: orkrious who wrote (5959 ) 11/15/2001 4:38:05 PM From: Zeev Hed Read Replies (2) | Respond to Cross currents are quite heavy, and thus I am not ready to change the outlook, some parameters are now pointing to the current period not resolving itself as fast as I thought, but taking once more a period of four months (like the May 22/Sep 22), thus getting a low (a major low near the 1400, and possibly worse). I don't like that model that much, since it will almost repeat this year model (a low was predicted then for the early part of March, if you remember). I am not coming to this model until I see how we resolve the top here. We are already almost a week late on the timing schedule (the top was supposed to be at the latest on 11/9, but as you know, we made a new recovery high yesterday) for the original scenario, and compressed too much to finish the job by December 21st (we did not finish the job last year either (g).). If a new scenario comes into play, than the low in December will be probably around 1625 (nominal 1628), with a small bounce later this month from 1782 (nominal 1793) (a two legs decline to the 14th and a final third leg to the 21st, after a minor bounce around the 14th). Then a sharp rally (year end rally and "January effect" combined) to form a double top at the 1920/40 area again and a very weak February, early March to once more, the low 1400 (1458 nominal, 1425 max target right now, that target could change to a new low under some circumstances). That the best I can do right now. By the way, this is the "alternative model", if we do not start and get down here early next week and accelerate the movement down early in December. Since the last "alternative model" worked perfectly (coalescence of the late August and October lows in September), maybe it will this time as well.
