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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fyodor_ who wrote (63838)	11/16/2001 12:18:52 PM
From: maui_dude	Respond to of 275872

fyodor, I think (a) is a most likely scenerio, with Dell prediction about unit shipment for Q4 be flat is incorrect. I dont know how much insight Dell has into the white box maker (and in countries like China/India) and how many units they are selling. Maui.

To: fyodor_ who wrote (63838)	11/16/2001 12:22:48 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

fyo, Re: <If I'm missing some possible explanations, please don't hesitate to let me know.> How about excessive pessimism in August/September caused lessened wafer starts for AMD? How about P-4 low K process causing low yield and splits. tgptndr

To: fyodor_ who wrote (63838)	11/16/2001 11:11:27 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Fyo, How about f) I have no idea what's going on, because a) The consumer demand is not high (expectedly or unexpectedly) b) Only 1 company can have binsplit problems at the time. If both companies have trouble delivering the top speed-grade, it's a tie, resulting in no problem for either side. c) I doubt any capacity is being taken out of production in order to convert to .13u. Mostly, it is new capacity that is .13u. There is a plenty of .18u capacity to satisfy some 125% to 150% of current demand d) there is no shortage. There is a plentiful supply of 2 GHz P4, AXP 1800+ and 1900+ on pricewatch Joe

To: fyodor_ who wrote (63838)	11/16/2001 11:50:59 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

Re: Both AMD and Intel seem to be experiencing a tightness of availability with their high-end processors. What are the reasons behind this? a) Unexpectedly high consumer demand? b) Bin split problems for both? c) Supply problems from both, e.g. due to .13µ conversion. d) Supply problems from Intel, causing consumers to buy AMD instead, creating a shortage of AMD parts. e) Some combination of the above. Given recent pricing relative to last year's pricing, Intel should be in an extreme scarcity position on their high end, and AMD should be sitting on a mountain of parts. Neither seems to be the case, so I'm guessing that it's a combination of AMD having shifted too much of their available production to mobile/multiprocessor parts, and Intel facing weak demand for P4 (which basically what you told me a few posts back <vbg> ) The palomino ramp may not have been quite as fast as AMD was hoping, either.