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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t4texas who wrote (4093)	11/16/2001 6:47:58 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

t4texas re: "bond enlightenment - please" biz.yahoo.com note: the comments on large international selling... as we've been saying - repatriation of foreign funds was a when, not if proposition... Wait untill they resume waltzing down the US Dollar which will follow a slow, gradual - but undeniably managed descent. All Greenspan is doing here is slowing the inevitable... allowing the insiders to make some "Free Money" (like the 30 year Bond debacle) during this historic transfer of wealth from - "us to the Investment Bankers"... This was the greatest speculative bubble in modern market history - and we are in the midst of a "Rogue Wave Event" (Terrorism) being thrown right into the middle of the bubble bursting... and nary a discount seen in US Equity Markets for either a recession, a bubble washout, or the Rogue Wave Event of Terrorism... we aren't even close to a bottom.... not even close... more negative events, more Inside Wall Street Transfers of Wealth Games via prop jobs & "Student Body Right" - insider games etc.... Short the broad market rallies; add to gold & silvers on all pullbacks & keep playing the trading range game... golds/silver to the upside & the broadmarket to the downside... both will continue their stair-step moves in opposing directions. Here's reality check chart; year to date: siliconinvestor.com HUI + 31% XAU + 9% DOW - 8% XOI - 11% S&P - 12% Nasdq - 21% XNG - 30% OSX - 45%

To: t4texas who wrote (4093)	11/16/2001 8:11:01 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

OK,. 2 Big reasons Tsy Market tanked: 1. $$ poured in Treasuries after 9/11, week after week. Market historians refer to that kind of pattern as the classic "flight to safety" you see during panics & crashes, wars, etc. Now the 1st phase of the War on Terrorism is coming to a successful conclusion, that $$ is flowing back out of treasuries in huge quantities. Some of it will flow into other investments. But that's another subject for another post<g> 2. I've read about this Tsy bond collapse on several threads today. What everyone seems to have forgotten is the perception by the markets that the federal budget has been busted, the surplus has gone bye bye and a new cycle of gov borrowing is soon to begin. This is an enormously important development. And that's what the market said today. You have huge bailouts for a number of industries with more lining up. Huge expenditures for domestic security already and a great deal more in the pipeline. Huge expenditures to pay for a war on the other side of the world. Huge expenditures, we can only guess at, for the prop job, crank job, pump job manipulations in all the markets. Add all that all up and the Feds are gonna be selling tons and tons of Tsy bonds to pay for all this in the next few years. Such a tidal wave of new government debt issuance means higher interest rates on government debt. That reality was only hidden temporarily by the "flight to quality" of Tsy buying that's now reversed. So the bottom line is treasuries going into the tank has nothing to do with a stronger economy. The economy continues to get weaker. Indus production reported today showed the biggest drop in 11 years! It has nothing to do with inflation. The global economys in one of the most rapid contractions ever recorded accompanied by falling prices. That's the trademark of a deflationary depression. IMO it's only in it's early stages. And remember, sustained higher LT interest rates on Treasuries, puts more dampening pressure on economic activity and prices of goods & services. Ring up another goal on the scoreboard for the Deflation thesis. Well that's my best shot at answering your question. Isopatch

To: t4texas who wrote (4093)	11/17/2001 2:34:41 AM
From: t4texas	Respond to of 36161

bond scare input from kasriel paul kasriel predicts on nov. 2, 2001 the markets are not going to be fooled by the treasury's announcing no more sales of tbonds. northerntrust.com What's the moral of this story? Debt management schemes don't fool the markets. If the only reason the 10-year Treasury yield is falling is because of a bond scare, mortgage interest rates won't fall anywhere near one-for-one with Treasury yields. Rather, the spread of mortgage rates over the 10-year Treasury yield will rise. If Treasury 10-year yields fall because of economic weakness, mortgage yields are more likely to move in tandem. But again, falling mortgage rates under these circumstances are not a sign of imminent economic recovery, but rather a sign of current and expected economic malaise.