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To: donald sew who wrote (24458)	11/20/2001 6:40:21 AM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

"technicals may be over-rodden by fundamentals/news" Fat chance! Even if we test the September lows the NDX at least is in a liquidity induced bubble. Forward PE (Dec 01) of NDX 100 is 59.9 and that's on pro-forma numbers. Analyst expectations for NDX 100 companies make for a 30% recovery by Mar 03. If capture of bin Laden happens, it will be time to sell the news as these prices already factor in that probability. Here's where I calculate weighted forward PEs for the NDX 100: Subject 51697

To: donald sew who wrote (24458)	11/20/2001 7:28:21 AM
From: JustTradeEm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

As mentioned often recently, the key is controlling/capture of Bin-Laden/terrorist organization, which is a news item. Per our research back to the Spanish-American War, recoveries start after the war ends. Donald, I believe OBL demise will be the beginning of the real war, not the end. With each passing day, it appears more likely that the administration will be moving on Iraq upon completion of current missions. That will be the real war, not this. Peace .... JB

To: donald sew who wrote (24458)	11/20/2001 7:30:02 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Don: Re: "Per our research back to the Spanish-American War, recoveries start after the war ends." Maybe so, but this is no conventional war and no conventional wartime economy. How does one define the end to the war on terrorism? One can't with confidence say it ends with Bin Laden and his organiztion. And there is the problem with defining this as a conventional war. No big deal in my mind as we would have been at this economic juncture anyway, Bin Laden or no Bin Laden. And that is the real problem. Taking out Bin Laden and his organization out will not solve the underlying economic problem. Re: "As mentioned often recently, the key is controlling/capture of Bin-Laden/terrorist organization, which is a news item." No longer a news item in my mind. Control has been discounted by the market, in my view, and capture or death of Bin Laden is anticipated.

To: donald sew who wrote (24458)	11/21/2001 1:29:39 AM
From: chris431	Respond to of 52237

War. What is war? This is an important question when considering whether or not we should be examining the end of the current international action in relationship to acting as a timing device for domestic economic recovery. What are the percentage of domestic resources being dislocated toward the action? How much human capital is being dislocated? How many domestic actors are lost? What percentage of GDP is being used toward the effort? What amount of productive resource are being temporarily transferred for the effort? Without these questions being answered and coming to the conclusion that this international action resembles that which occurred in the wars being researched, any relationship made between the coming end of this action & economic recovery serves little purpose other than 1 more excuse for the talking heads to proclaim the bottom is in. (per the talking heads we should have never had an economic slowdown & when one did occur, it was suppose to be over by now). The above questions are what's truly important as it speaks to the dislocation of resources which once properly relocated to their regular productive uses create the lagging effect of an economic recovery or bounce. Without making the proper relationships between the current dislocation and previous dislocations, the relationship between a war's end & economic recovery has little predictive powers unless in fact we are "at war." Chris P.S. Great work, Don. Been a long time reader & greatly appreciate your work/posts.