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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (11208)	11/22/2001 12:47:13 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Respond to of 74559

Hi Allan, The Wave 3 of 3 in the current rally starting. belongs to David. Message 16688674 I quoted his text in referring him to your thread. Sorry for any mix up. My thoughts are FWIW all FA and anecdotal inputs re: sentiment: I'm still leaning towards (as I posted to David on BBR) a good bear rally, not for any good reason other than irrational exuberance. I just feel that we won't get the big sell off for tax loss season that everyone is expecting, because everyone is expecting it and because fewer people have profits to offset. After Christmas though I think look out below, plus I'm concerned about reprisals for the Afghan initiative by then. Message 16514018 regards Kastel a cute and cuddly Canadian bear

To: AllansAlias who wrote (11208)	11/22/2001 1:47:43 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 74559

My favored scenario is your "alternative one" on the long-term chart on your site, with this being the big B correction starting at September 21. Other TA shows me that the September bottom was highly significant on a par with the March-April one. So I guess that is one of the main reasons I favor this scenario. BWDIK, I'm just learning... David

To: AllansAlias who wrote (11208)	11/22/2001 10:00:28 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi AllansAlias, I've viewed the charts referenced and I don't have much doubt but what it could be a valid prediction. The one key variable I'm curious as to how you've calculated is the tremendous liquidity that is being added to the banking system. biz.yahoo.com Whereas the Fed steered a course of sobriety and decorum in 1930-31, we seem to have learned that lesson and are on a different course today. The run up of equities since Sept. 21 is nothing short of breathtaking for a fundamentalist like myself who understands that we are simply witnessing an asset class inflation of unsustainable proportions. This is not to say, however, that the FRB won't continue on this mode indefinitely, or at least until the taxpayers of this nation realize they're being fleeced for the sake of an elite capitalist class. Something that conveniently only happens every other generation or so. Comments welcomed! -R.