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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (11225)	11/22/2001 10:46:11 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Raymond, I view the frantic credit creation as desperation. It is not the sort of action that one takes unless one needs to. Imho, it is the initial salvo that one would expect to see when the gaping maw of the liquidity trap begins to open wide. Having said that, it is not the sort of thing that a bear wants to step in front of. Let it run its course and then watch to see if real buying shows up. We are at that crossroads now and I think the buying will not materialize. The alternative here is that we will see a record number of people be right. History tells me that that's not how bear markets work. It would be shocking to me to see so many on Wall Street (they are recommending an all-time record of equity allocation!), and so many on SI for that matter, hit the mark and be correct that we are indeed at the front end of a nice run. Nope, they will be wrong. I think it a misconception that bear markets make bears rich. While bull markets birth many a genius, I think bear markets thrive on fooling the majority regardless of persuasion -- when this thing is over, years from now, the mood will be nothing like it is today. There will be few so eager to proclaim a new bull, insiders buying will be turning the corner, P/Es will be somewhere south of 10, Wall Street analysts will be touting fixed income, the public will have no interest in the market, commercials will be net long, and SI won't exist. In other words, it will be nothing like it is today. This is all standard bearish fare. I know that. I expect that the bulls think that they'll get the jump on the perma-bears buy buying these dips. They are wrong. They will be disappointed until they give up. Until they do, there is ample fuel for a bear. I look forward to just raising my kids and buying the dip. It's years away yet. Cheers, Allan

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (11225)	11/22/2001 11:57:53 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<The run up of equities since Sept. 21 is nothing short of breathtaking for a fundamentalist like myself who understands that we are simply witnessing an asset class inflation of unsustainable proportions. > I couldn't agree more... and here's a big reason fundamentals matter... if you're not making money you've got to get it somewhere: Message 16694821 <This is not to say, however, that the FRB won't continue on this mode indefinitely, or at least until the taxpayers of this nation realize they're being fleeced for the sake of an elite capitalist class. Something that conveniently only happens every other generation or so. > To be honest I'm pretty surprised we haven't seen a bigger backlash against wall street in the wake of the likes of Blodget & Meeker selling snake oil to their clients... but if no one complains... on the other hand I won't be surprised one bit if things get bad enough over the next few years that your prediction proves out. DAK

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (11225)	11/23/2001 2:26:28 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Raymond Duray: This is not to say, however, that the FRB won't continue on this mode indefinitely, or at least until the taxpayers of this nation realize they're being fleeced for the sake of an elite capitalist class. Something that conveniently only happens every other generation or so. I disagree; the taxpayers never seem to get it. Its a rigged game and always has been. If you play the game with that understanding, it allows you to stop gambling in the dark and bet with the house...<g> The secret is to discern the house "intent", rarely easy, but always worth the effort. Regards, LG

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (11225)	11/23/2001 2:51:11 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

<This is not to say, however, that the FRB won't continue on this mode indefinitely, or at least until the taxpayers of this nation realize they're being fleeced for the sake of an elite capitalist class > Hang on a minute. We, the elite capitalist class, are not fleecing the taxpayers of the USA. We are fleecing the holders of US$ who are being diluted flat out by my idol Uncle Green$pan. But the holders of US$ are spread around the world [Japan holds a LOT of US$], and Americans don't have any cash [rumour has it] so it's not as though we are fleecing US people [and certainly not taxpayers - heck, they are the owners of the printing press and own every new $ that Uncle Al prints; they are fleecing US!]. This wonderful splitting of the currency is what I've been waiting for for 3 years nearly [and actually since 1996 when I first started worrying about what would happen in the event of a deflationary collapse precipitated by an imploding wealth effect]. It was May 1999 that I decided the jig was up and it was time for a major retrenchment to sort out the wild and crazy Internuts and speculators. I was amazed that it took all the way to March 2000 for the game to peak at a much higher level. When that happened, I was sure Uncle Al would do what he should. Now Uncle Al is doing what I've waited so long for. What else could he do? No action would mean a collapse below the economic event horizon and a total implosion into a monster depression and international disaster making the 1930s depression look like chicken feed [most people in the world lived rural agrarian lives then, less susceptible to stockmarket mayhem]. Uncle Al knows that so is printing flat out. He can print and dilute flat out because there are productivity gains aplenty and a deflationary environment, with oil prices falling and economic problems meaning lower prices all over the place. Companies [such as QUALCOMM] which provide essential products and services, will zoom in share price because each share is priced in US$ which are doing the equivalent of a share split. It's like a reverse split of the stockmarket. Because there is some catching up to do in P:E ratios, there might not actually be a rise in share prices. Perhaps shares will remain stable in price as the diluted cash causes P:Es to rise. Sure, I'm not actually wealthier, just because of a reverse split in the sharemarket, but I am compared with those who hold cash, which is what it's all about. This reverse splitting of the stockmarket can continue until inflation starts to rise. As soon as inflation starts rising, and the economy improves [or stops grinding down] interest rates will be zoomed up again. Hey presto, shareholders [of sensible companies] will be in a good position. Cash holders will wonder what the hell happened and how come the bear didn't rampage as promised and cause a financial collapse. We, the elite foreign capitalists, appreciate Alan Green$pan's ministrations. Yay for Uncle Al! Roll those printing presses!!! Because the post Y2K Bubbleonian hangover has been going for 18 months now, there has been a LOT of tidying up in the market. Margin calls have been made. Debts repaid. Re-employment of dot.com employees is proceeding apace [at more reasonable pay rates]. There was no precipitous collapse which would have been unmanageable if it had happened in a big hurry. We can thank Uncle Al for that. He yanked the chain by raising interest rates until everyone squealed and the bubble burst. That gave him a lot of leeway to cut rates, which he has done in the most spectacular interest rate cutting in human history [wild claim but maybe true for all I know]. The dodgy companies have already gone bust or had their market capitalisations reduced so hugely that there is almost no decline left. Globalstar is typical: siliconinvestor.com Global Crossing: siliconinvestor.com JDS Uniphase has a little bit left to fall: siliconinvestor.com How about a bit of sympathy for we elite international capitalist classes. Mqurice