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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (149132)	11/22/2001 12:39:22 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

if AMD is willing to sell all these at cost, isn't it reasonable to assume that they stand to gain much more market share? No. AMD has been selling at below cost and they have lost market share. Why would they gain share by raising prices? EP

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (149132)	11/22/2001 12:40:07 AM
From: Paul Engel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Beamer - Re: "What do you figure this means in terms of AMD CPU capacity? If Dresden is capable by itself of producing ~8M .13u CPUs per quarter, and AMD can outsource 25% more, then that means that AMD should have capacity for 10M or more processors per quarter (even without the Austin fab). I don't mean to be tossing around any Dan3ish calculations, but you have to admit: if AMD is willing to sell all these at cost, isn't it reasonable to assume that they stand to gain much more market share?" First, AMD won't have this total capacity for over 12 months from now - they haven't even begun 0.13 micron production. When they do, they have to ramp it up - and that is a gradual process. AMD started production in DregsDen nearly 20 months ago - and THEY STILL haven't ramped to full capacity. Secondly, as AMD ramps their bulk 0.13 micron process, they are working on the SOI 0.13 micron process - and that will consume fab resources - and take away production capacity - due to dilution of available resources - equipment, engineers, operators, etc. Thirdly, Ban Ban Lewinsky Dan keeps yakking about the small die sizes bandied about for 0.13 micron ThoroDead CPUs. And this is where AMD is going to stumble. Simply shrinking the ThumperTurd from 0.18 micron to 0.13 micron ThoroDead WITHOUT CACHE SIZE enhancements - will buy them minimal performance gains. Intel KNOWS THIS - that is why Intel doubled the L2 cache of their 0.13 micron Pentium /// to 512K and the same for their 0.13 micron Pentium 4 Northwood. Eventually, AMD will stumble on to this reality and WILL HAVE to redesign their 0.13 micron products just to remain competitive (unless they pull some more QuantiSpeed numbers out of their butts). When they double their cache sizes, their die sizes will go up and that "massive" CPU capacity will come down - FAST !! Paul