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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (7872)	11/25/2001 4:04:11 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 99280

Actually, some of my "bull calls" were overoptimistic, some of them were under optimistic. Late in April last year (2000), I had the rally post the late May lows going to just under 5000, it got to 4300, a big miss (but to the turnips credit, for the second run they put together a new forecast with 4300 as the top, it got barely there). In March this year, my scenario called for 2160 as first target followed with a run to between 2550 to 2388, we got above the bottom part, but were short by 50 on the top side. And this September, I was overly "pessimistic, with a target of 1973 (with a spike to 1815, and forget about the 1920/40 target that was not a "forecast", that was "if the forecast was wrong" <g>). So the turnips are simply "inaccrate", not particularly pessimistic, not optimistic (g). Now, the timing, some big "ouch" and some very accurate on the hours the most "memorable", "get out by 2:15 PM January 31st" <VBG>), but frankly, the misses are typically within two weeks, and invariably, late. That was the case for the May low last year (I had the 18th it was the 24th), and for the March low this year (I had the 12th and it was the 22nd (some would say, worst, April 3rd, since the Dow and Naz were a little more than week apart in bottoming). Zeev