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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (4405)	11/26/2001 10:49:26 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

re: "Booms, Bust and Recoveries vs Economic Armageddeon... Frank... I don't think the vast majority of "Bears" are looking for "armageddeon"... But, I do think they are looking for a return to "reality" vs the present "IRRATIONAL DENIAL" found in this market. Bottomline; this is the most re-flated, intervened upon, stabilized & thus manipulated market in financial history. If the Fed & ESF/PPT hadn't intervened along with Wall Street on a literal "Student Body - Left" prop job... who knows where the Dow would have bottomed, or where it would be today ? Imho; what we have presently - is all the "inside the beltway" Wall Street-Prop Job money in the market .... just waiting for Mr. & Mrs. Main Street to move back in & then they'll pull their prop job money (and massive profits) back out... leaving Mr. & Mrs. Main Street with at least a 50% retrace of the prop job - and a tidy little net loss for those buying into this fraudulent recovery. Quite simply it is NOT about armageddeon, but rather about simple historic fundamental valuation multiples and a reality check on the present global economy. This market NEVER even began to price in a recession, let alone a speculative bubble collapse; nor has it placed a Risk-discount due to the potential costs of further domestic terrorist acts & the drain of productive capital by the coming decade+ long war on terrorism. EARNINGS are the key to any market....along with dividends and those are the two most negative fundamental factors of this market...valuations are STILL at historical extremes in the face of both a global recession & a speculative mania deflation; along with a "rogue wave" market event - that hasn't gone away... terrorism. Bill Gross & others have done great work on showing the math on how & why people are basically "BORN TO LOSE" in this environment... and that we may have up to a decade of significant underperformance in the US Stock Market. It's still clear to me; that the deflation of an undisputable speculative bubble is still ongoing...those who think "happy days are here again" are about to become fodder for another humbling chapter in market history imho. Many on this thread will remember the discussions on the old SI SD thread about when Julian Robertson, Stanley Shopkorn and then later Soros (to an extent), Druckenmiller and Vinnik all walked away from this market. Someday; these guys will look like sages due to the levels they exited at - as compared to where we may ultimately bottom... We are getting very close to an interesting market event as well... the adoption of the EURO. The GDP of the Euro adopting countries - exceeds that of the USA by the way... One interesting school of thought evolving is that the EURO will become the next "FIAT" vehicle of choice and there is some very interesting outside of the box thinking on the dollar of late...and what the US Government may due with the US Dollar under the guise of fighting terrorism & money laundering... The next significant trend will be that the US will waltz down the US Dollar... it has to. It is a pre-requisite for US Corporate Earnings recovery and to literally stop what is a Depression level collapse in the US Manufacturing Sector... the repatriation of foreign investment will continue - following the managed descent of the Dollar and that alone will continue this Bear Market contraction to more historically supported valuation multiples - "EVEN" into the face of an economic turnaround. And as to those who say - "don't fight the tape" in reference to this recent rally; I'd respond with : "set the tape free" ...ie: this isn't a tape reflecting FREE MARKETS, let alone economic recovery, or reality; but merely a Fed/ESF-PPT & Wall Street led bail out over the Sept 11th collapse...nothing more, nothing less ~ When, not if... tic - toc'

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (4405)	11/26/2001 1:08:22 PM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Hi frank, Actually as Slider pointed out most were never expecting Armageddon (but were somewhat prepared in case :o), although yes a few were. A return to reality is more what they are expecting. People disgusted with the market etc...finally hunkering down to pay off all those 'low interest' refinanced debts because eventually debt service does catch up, reevaluating retirement due to reduced portfolios..... Anecdotally right now: My smaller customers ones are hiring and adding on workstations, my main big one is spending on MIS like crazy, but to be fair they were stoneage only 4 years ago and have catching up to do. As far as shoppers well I've seen no abatement either. At the recent Santa Claus parade (biggest in history ? this year) in Toronto, the starting gun for the Christmas season of hedonism I had a curious question asked of me. An obvious tourist (he sounded Scandinavian) asked me what 'all this was about'. I told him and his response was 'but it's only November!'. Of course I reminded him that we only had 35 and a half shopping days left until Christmas LOL, (we're open 7 days here). I'm looking for the long term outlook here. Nothing to do with the market really. If the economy is going to be really bleak for quite a few years I'll pack up and take an opportunity in Québec which requires at 5 year commitment before I can exit. Otherwise I`ll stay put and work on them 50-100 acres in this area, where my worst scenario is getting a decent paying job (yech) or working contract in case customers disappear. I'm not so sure that this isn't a bear market fake out, You growing horns now Frank LOL ? regards Kastel