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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (8428)	11/27/2001 3:34:32 PM
From: DebtBomb	Respond to of 99280

Dlphc, don't forget about individual tax loss selling in Dec., IMO, almost everything is lower than in Jan., so it could be a player, this is a down year, like last year.

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (8428)	11/27/2001 4:16:18 PM
From: stockmarket14	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

DlphcOracl: I concur with your assessment with a slight modification. I don't believe that NAZ will retest low of Sept or even below 1650 for the balance of 2001. In reality, I think NAZ will end the yr near 2,000 because semi can easily beat their very low expections in 4Q-01 and particularly 2002 when comparing yr to yr with 2001, Intel is a typical example. This tech bellweather will move the market significantly. Of course, it is not a straight line up. Corrections will happen, but should happen at a much higher level than the current one. There will be some sell off due to tax loss & profit taking sales, but the dips will mostly be shallow (10-15%) due to buying on dips from more than 2.5 trillions cashes on sideline. So, 3 steps forward and 1 step backward instead of Zeev's reversal. I heard from CNBC yesterday or last Fri that there are about equal amount of institutional cash waiting on the sideline too with a total close to 5 trillions cash. How many times in the past decades that the market has such an astronomical cash waiting on the sideline? In addition, this bear has been long enough to send it back to hybernation since winter is here now. Except the volume, this is a bull market in the very early stage, i.e., climbing on a wall of worry.