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To: AllansAlias who wrote (22712)11/27/2001 11:25:16 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 209892
 
80% is your number then -- is that a rule of thumb or a target given current conditions?

seing the bears give up is kind of a subjective call, no??

Tons of them have been giving up -- there will be some outstanding short interest when we make an intermediate turn. What do you mean by give up -- a huge squeeze that propels the daq 10% in a day? what?

not saying this to be critical -- just wondering about your measures -- how much is a given sentiment level you are looking for 'absolute' or 'relative', i.e. guided by recent history ...



To: AllansAlias who wrote (22712)11/28/2001 1:23:42 AM
From: john722  Respond to of 209892
 
Allan. Friday is the last Friday of the Month and

I would bet that a lot of MM's are short and need to get stock to settle their books. And of course we all know that they pay "lower" not higher prices, so, I am expecting a decline. This of course is my guess and not a prediction.
We touched (actually went 2 points higher) than the July 10
close of 1963, and turned back. Tomorrow is 47 TD's of this leg up so I don't expect much more (Will Lucas or Fibonacci
rule this rally?) P/C ratio is still a little high for my
taste, but that can be quickly corrected with another push.
Getting real interesting now.



To: AllansAlias who wrote (22712)11/28/2001 8:51:04 AM
From: JRI  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Are you surprised at all on how quickly bulls bailed there (Rydex) yesterday....I am...I thought the sideways action the last 2 weeks (also, looking at VIXs relative calmness/bullishness), we'd see more bullish apathy on a day like yesterday...

I take it, when you talk about it going to an extreme, a spike will do...you don't need a sustained (a few days) period at that high/low (respective) level.