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To: yard_man who wrote (22714)	11/28/2001 3:39:44 AM
From: oldirtybastard	Respond to of 209892

It will take a hell of a move up in both time and price level from here to make some give up (I am speaking from my own perspective and a few other shorts I know), which is kind of scary if you are short and believe that move has yet to happen. It also doesn't feel to me like this move can happen without a series of surprise good news, do you think it can?

To: yard_man who wrote (22714)	11/28/2001 4:11:10 AM
From: sun-tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

hey tip, i think recent history has given us some reasonable guidelines for this move. particularly the liquidity driven rallies beginning in the last quarter of 1990, 1998 and 1999. the money infusion in 2001 post sep 11 dwarfs the other three. historically, these moves have extended to springtime of the following year give or take a month. when these parabolic ramps happen, the bullish ferver usually drives the overall p/c ratio below .3 for an extended length. amazingly the p/c ratio sits at .74 today and the 10 day overall p/c ratio is .64. with regard to allan's 80% requirement on investor sentiment, i don't have good experience to render an opinion. however, we are in the STRONGEST seasonal period from a historical perspective and combined with the moves of the indices off their low, imo a 10 day p/c ratio of .3 or less is required to confirm that a significant top is in place. these #'s would probably coincide with allan's so i have added his signals to my list of confirmatory indicators. there remain a lot of hedgefunds who are stuck short, or have reinitiated new short positions at this point. therefore, we continue to get these ferocious short covering moves that prevent the market from having any extended downside action. this process continues to correct overbought conditions internally and provides the nidus for a continuation move to the upside. in the absence of some seminal event, it appears that this market will not give up until the "recovery" thesis is destroyed. presumably this will occur during warnings/earnings season in the next quarter. interestingly enough, this would coincide with the historical end of the post liquidity induced rallies that begin in the last three months of 1990, 1998 and 1999. hope this post finds you well, mike

To: yard_man who wrote (22714)	11/28/2001 8:02:36 AM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

typically a sell signal is generated on the bullish percent indexes at the 70 or over level, but it can be relative i believe according the the P&F point scale. i think Allan, like a lot of other folks, really like to see this indicator go th extremes before using it as a reliable buy/sell tool. Please, anyone correct me if this is incorrect... it's a great tool to use in conjuntion with other oversold/overbought indicators see this NDX unfinished weekly, it currently stands at 77 on the daily stockcharts.com[e,a]waclnnmy[df][pf][iUb14!Lh5,5] Best, John M