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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (2097)	11/28/2001 8:06:02 PM
From: Lorne Larson	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 11633

I like this acquisition by AVN and I like the Richland acquisition by PVE announced a few days ago. These guys have got the formula right - buy production when prices are down. One of the concerns I had about AVN was their reserve life. This goes a long way towards solving that problem. As I understand it their reserve life is now 9.3 years. Not quite comparable to some of the older trusts, but getting closer. Also note that they are immediately hedging 75% of production from the new properties at a floor of $4.50 while maintaining some upside potential. In my opinion AVN has the best hedging position of all the oil and gas trusts. Going on record as having taken a small short position today on NCF, ERF and SHN. Think they are all going to announce major cuts in distributions - if not in December than in January. PGF has too much debt and has major capex which it can't avoid. However price has taken a major hit over the past few days so may be a little late. Anyone seen the TD analysis of price targets for some of the oil and gas trusts at $15.00 oil and $2.50 gas? Pretty scary. They do a neat comparison to the trusts in 1998 when oil hit $14.00, in terms of debt, cash-flow, etc.