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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (49220)	11/28/2001 7:11:47 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

MM- there is a 5% royalty rate on all cdma handsets except those manufactured and sold in China. Who knows what nok is calling 3G, if its not WCDMA or 1X, then there are no royalties to QCOM. Since when is APRU spiraling downward? Not for Sprint and VZ AND they haven't even launched 1X. In Korea APRU has been 31% higher for 1x users than IS -95. 1X percentages for the last 3 months are july 2.8%, aug 4.7%, sept 6.8%, Oct 9%(est.) If you are going to crank numbers (which are useful, and I do appreciate your efforts), use correct assumptions. Caxton

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (49220)	11/28/2001 7:40:10 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

CDMA has a little more than 90 million subs and ASPs well below $200 The ASP's on CDMA handsets are right at $200. qualcomm.com My assumption of 120 million handsets for '03 is based on the 90 million number for '02 plus the various comments by Unicom on the build-out of their network. a whopping 30 million people are going to suddenly pay an ASP of $500 for a handset in a brand new standard that could be full of bugs? The 7650 is going to be coming out at around $500. This is going to be a high-end GPRS handset with a built-in digital camera. My assumption is that Nokia will have to price their initial W-CDMA handsets even higher. These handsets are going to be heavily subsidized....and will likely combine a digital camera plus a host of other features. Noone is going to be buying a separate MP3 player in a couple of years. The initial replacement cost for the W-CDMA handsets in Docomo's trial was $1000. nor do i believe QCOM will take a 5% royalty off that. i imagine something more like $200 ASP for half as many people, and a 3% royalty. Well....since there a hundred thousand or so posts avaiable for your perusal on the Qualcomm threads, I dont think I can add much on the royalty rate. You are welcome to reach your own conclusions. did you run these numbers a year ago? and a year before that? what did they tell you then? i am curious about that indeed. I have made this observation before....the fact that Bulls have been wrong over the last two years can be used to refute ANY argument to buy stocks (the converse was true in '99). FWIW....at the beginning of each year, I projected around $1.25 for both years. Qualcomm has been particuarly vulnerable over the last two years since their were very few new CDMA networks built in '98 and '99. The Korean subsidy ban, the slowdown in Latin America and the lack of Chinese build-out have been the primary reasons for weakness over the last two years. You are welcome to argue with me about the timing of the W-CDMA roll-out. Many others (including IJ) dont believe we will hit those types of numbers until '04. However, if you look closely, it is fairly clear that Qualcomm will double earnings in a very short period when these networks do hit commercial status. Also....these numbers arent the end of the game as you imply, but the beginning. The 30 million users will be the early adopters....the numbers get bigger when the middle of the bell curve starts using W-CDMA. Slacker