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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (35305)	11/29/2001 5:12:31 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68599

Jim, That brings up an interesting point on where the market is going over the next 3 months. From memory, December is a mixed month with a downward bias. Given that we are in pre-warnings season and there is still some individual tax loss selling to do, I expect most stock will be flat to down. In January though, mutual funds tend to pick their winners for the year, giving a boast to stocks. In the past 2 years this effect has taken place towards the end of January. This accelerates into Feburaury and March as people make their last minute retirement saving contribution so they can qualify for the last tax year. After April all bets are off as we have sold the last 2 years in preparation for the summer doldrims. So the question is this, what should we be buying towards the end of December to take advantage of the end of January rally. I expect this to be a stock pickers market, so good stocks in bad sectors might still be able to succeed.

To: j g cordes who wrote (35305)	11/29/2001 5:42:10 PM
From: Suresh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 68599

Hi Jim, so we are now left at the mercy of history.... :) But honestly I think we are going in the wrong direction for a sustained recovery in the market. A sustained rally cannot take place without solid foundation and the foundation we are building is not a solid one. Afghan events have unfolded really fast to make any long term recovery based on that event as a catalyst a big suspect. We will have anemic but decent growth of 15% or so for many companies going forward but we are setting up for major disappointment in the stock action over a long term. Later, Suresh