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Strategies & Market Trends : Nasdaq 100 Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Lee who wrote (15)	12/2/2001 10:25:14 AM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 238

My only disagreement is about revs. I don't see them increasing YoY. The market just isn't there. Dell just forecast flat unit growth for the industry this Q (or is it next Q?). Anyway, with unit growth YoY small (it really is just a replacement market, although there may be small pockets of growth some places), with price declines it is impossible to see how dollar sales can increase by any measurable amount. All this means is that INTC may get an increase in EPS because of margin improvement, but it won't be sustainable, because eventually margin improvement will stop (it won't take that long) and with no sales growth you can't grow earnings.

To: Steve Lee who wrote (15)	12/2/2001 11:35:28 AM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 238

Steve, explain why the masses might need the P4 or 2GHZ+ etc? Lets face the fact that there is no killer app or service that requires such MHz power today nor is there anything on the horizon that will. INTC is phucked plan and simple, IMO. The other end of the story is the Corporate XP - P4 cycle. It won't be like dos-win3.1-NT-95-=-> type transitions. By asking around it's become obvious that most of corp. America is not going to jump on the band wagon for several reasons. First you have the fact they've been doing this upgrade cycle in the name of "productivity"...that has ended for the most part. New systems & upgrades have NOT shown up in the corp bottom line. The Second is don't fix it if it ain't broke. Sure you will have the R&D, CAD, and Engineering dept's getting the new stuff, but not like the last cycles. Corporations spent the last many years tweaking their IT to get it to work "just well" enough with plenty of problems along the way. . They have MOST of the bugs out of it...NFW are they going to do wholesale upgrades for YEARS, Win98 with a few patches, some reboots will be just fine thank you, besides we have a recession and it won't fit in our budget yadda yadddaaa Win XP...Xtrabloatware & Postponed ----- Also...take a look INTC's valuation. PE of 50 (2002est) and visions growth dance in the anla's heads. Hope and prayers will be needed <GGG>. Price/Sales (TTM) 5.92 ??? It just needs a push or shove and it's a teenager again.