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To: sun-tzu who wrote (136681)	12/2/2001 4:21:08 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 436258

as i said, if they don't go down this week, i am closing up the bear shop until jan

To: sun-tzu who wrote (136681)	12/2/2001 4:27:45 PM
From: Softechie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I don't think the public will buy another bubble. It's so close to 2000 crash.

To: sun-tzu who wrote (136681)	12/2/2001 6:58:02 PM
From: John	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

any thoughts about that analysis? What will be the catalyst for additional equity buying? Indeed, what has been the catalyst thus far? In late 1999-early 2000, a catalyst was in place; The wild craze (fever pitch) over dot-com's, the relative novelty of the Internet, a steady stream of IPOs, and the incessant prompting to upgrade software and computers. All of this was exacerbated by a massive business IT upgrade cycle designed to avoid the exaggerated Y2K problem. Will the perception (hope?) of recovery by mid-year 2002 or Q3 2002 be that catalyst now? Estimates have been lowered so much that it may not be difficult for some companies to surpass expectations. Who knows? Problems to deal with... - The continuing U.S. recession - Total ineffectiveness of the FOMC - Deficits through at least 2005 - An increasing threat of a global recession - The increased potential for a major Middle East War - The war on terrorism continuing - Probable Argentina loan defaults/financial crisis, which may spread into other Latin American countries - Additional ENRON fallout for major holders We have just finished a 36% 2 month NASDAQ rally following a series of unprecedented terrorist acts on American soil, and a wave of bioterrorism against all three branches of the U.S. government, and elsewhere. WHAT HAS BEEN THE CATALYST FOR THE RALLY??? There was no catalyst. This rally has transpired because of a consensus hope that a sweeping recovery will come within 6 months. John