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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10878)	12/5/2001 4:12:56 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Justa: Even Barton Biggs thinks the lows are in. But like Zeev he sees a major pullback soon. BTW the market is again substantially overvalued (about 10%) using the Fed model. This reflects both the surge in the market yesterday and today, and today's big jump in bond yields. A word to the wise.......

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10878)	12/5/2001 4:55:30 PM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

I'm looking for a retest further out. As Spring does its typical oil price upsies, the retest will come between 4/02 and 6/02, imo.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10878)	12/5/2001 8:48:54 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Re: Bull Market definition thedowtheory.com <<<<Wall Street, quite unbelievably, has no universally accepted definition of either, so here goes: BULL Market: Charles Dow (of Dow-Jones’ The Wall Street Journal and The Dow Theory fame) defined it as "a broad upward movement" - I’d say O.K. but a little vague. Ned Davis Research defines it as "a 30% gain after 50 days…or a 13% rise after 155 days" - now I’d say that’s not too vague, but is a little too much. My own studies of the stock market in the 20th century show many fluctuations of 10 or 15% that don’t develop into anything, but when markets bounce up 19% that is the threshold from which advances have then risen 95% of the time to over +29%. One-half have risen over 80%, with the average Bull market gain being 123%, and lasting nearly 3 years (based on the record with the aberrations of the 1930’s removed). Therefore, I define a Bull market as one which advances 19% on both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 over any timeframe. Economic expansion has followed each such occasion. Subscribers will find a full report plus graph in the Special Report: Bull Markets of the 20th-21st Century. >>>>>>> Edit: If it looks and quacks like a duck . . . . . .