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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10958)	12/5/2001 9:06:12 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 99280

justa, great chart

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10958)	12/5/2001 9:10:19 PM
From: 4rthofjuly007	Respond to of 99280

I have seen that chart and it is really amazing.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10958)	12/5/2001 9:21:50 PM
From: byhiselo	Respond to of 99280

nice...

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10958)	12/5/2001 9:25:13 PM
From: Mark Johnson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

The rest of the story: That chart of the DOW vs the Nasdaq sure looks similar but history never repeats itself exactly. I would point out at least one fatal flaw in the policies during the DOW's 1930's slide. It looks like they cut the discount rate 1.5% in 1 year and then held that rate for 3+ more years - really bad policy. This time, the Fed has cut the rates 4.5% (soon to be 4.75-5% in 11 months) in 10 months. But we are not counting on interest rates alone - I don't know if tax cuts were put in place in the 30's but our recent and pending cuts will be very helpful as shown by the Reagan cuts in the early 80's. Furthermore, money supply is accomodative, government spending is on the rise (something I'm not particularily crazy about but as long as they are not long-term programs, they shouldn't hurt us down the road), mortgage refinancings at a record, oil prices are significantly lower - all of which provide additional support for the recovery.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (10958)	12/5/2001 10:59:03 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Justa: (BTW your User Name is a classic!!) stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyymy[d20010301,20011207][pb50!b200!b21][vc60][iLc20!Lk28!Lf] The above chart sure has the look and feel of a bull run. 200 DMA crossover occurred yesterday, technicals all screaming bullish. Compare to April/May timeframe, which represented a better looking bear market rally. I'd be wary of buying in right now, but I'm still holding much of the tech I picked up in Oct/Nov.. I don't see a fundamental case for tech personally, so I'm just riding the technicals until they reverse. Maybe fundamentals will catch up? Maybe this bull trend will end soon and retest?? Over the past ten years, I've seen at least a dozen charts that people come up with showing some current market compared to DJIA 1929-1933. It always looks good at the time presented, but check back a year later and the similarities break down.